This week's macro data has basically been released, with Tuesday's employment data being revised down and exceeding expectations. Wednesday's PPI data weakened and exceeded expectations, while Thursday's CPI data was relatively mild with not much issue.

At present, the inflation data still remains relatively sticky, but the weakening of the PPI and the moderation of the CPI are leading the market to reduce concerns about future inflation.

Before the interest rate meeting on September 18, the basic important economic data has been released. Currently, the market's sentiment is that there will be a 25 basis point rate cut in September, October, and December.

In the face of the loose market expectations for the second half of the year, risk assets are steadily rising. BTC remains relatively stable, although it appears slightly weak compared to M stocks at the moment. However, I personally believe that the situation in the risk market will not be too bad before the interest rate cut takes effect on September 18.

After the BTC price briefly spiked above 116,000 in the morning, it has retraced slightly and is currently attempting to break and stabilize above 115,000. If it can effectively hold this level, we can expect the price to accelerate further upwards. Before the interest rate decision on September 18, the market is likely to accelerate its rebound, completing the "second wave" of the short-term rebound.

This month's interest rate meeting is a turning point. If the dot plot shows three rate cuts this year with a cut of 75 basis points, then once the rate cut is confirmed, the market will experience a short-term pullback. After the "Sell the news" pullback, the market will enter a short-term correction.

If the dot plot indicates three rate cuts with a reduction of 100 BP, then the magnitude of "Sell the news" may be very small, and this outcome will inevitably raise expectations for a 50 BP rate cut in October, at which point the market may accelerate speculation on the expectations.

Personal current thinking: Open a long position near 115400, looking for a 4h rebound to the 117400 position! #ETH# #BTC#