Last night, BTC finally broke through 114,000, but it couldn't hold above, then it pulled back. Today during the day, it surged again to 114,460. In the short-term, it might trade within the entire 15-minute range before making another push. However, from the structure and timing, the 4-hour Rebound is basically at its end. Although there is still some Rebound momentum in the short-term, it's not recommended to chase rising prices. Those with long positions at low levels can see if it surges again after the CPI data comes out tonight; if you don't have long positions at low levels, it's better to wait and look for opportunities to position short orders. It's time to gradually shift from a long positions mindset to a short positions mindset.

BTC on the 1-hour level is approaching a possible divergence stage. If it can't rise to 116000 tonight, the 4-hour rebound may end, starting the third wave of a 4-hour decline on the daily level. If it pulls back again due to the CPI data, the rebound could last another two to three days. Additionally, if it falls below 112500 again, the 4-hour rebound is likely to end, so we need to pay attention to whether the key level can hold.
On the 15-minute level, it is currently undergoing 15-minute range consolidation. Normally, it would consolidate before making a move, but if 113000 cannot hold, the market may drop directly.
Ethereum and BTC are in sync, but the rebound structure feels slightly off. If it can push above 4500 again, the 4-hour rebound structure will be complete, but its movement is indeed weak. Let's wait and see; it would be great if it can break through. If the rebound ends, the next 4-hour drop is likely to break below 4000.
Trend direction
- Weekly: Upwards, target above 150,000;
- Daily: downward, focus on the range of 90,000-95,000;
- 4 hours: Upward, rebound to the end, see if the short-term rises again;
- 1 hour: Upward, there is still a chance of rising, breaking below 112500 carries risks;
- 15 minutes: upward.