At the beginning of September, the CME FedWatch tool showed that the probability of a Fed rate cut had soared to a high of 94%. However, the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum continued to be under pressure. Behind this seemingly unusual market behavior, there may be two key logics: on one hand, institutional funds may have completed a stage of profit-taking, using the market narrative of "rate cuts sparking a bull run" to stabilize retail investor confidence, while quietly completing position adjustments; on the other hand, market maker funds may be deliberately suppressing prices, combined with weekly MACD top divergence and death cross signals, creating panic to force retail investors to give up their low-position chips.

Looking back at history, one can always find similar trajectories—on the eve of the Fed's interest rate cuts in 2024, the crypto market also fell into a slump. However, once the rate cuts are implemented, combined with the "crypto-friendly" presidential election cycle, the market experienced an explosive rally within half a month. In this cycle, the timing of the interest rate cuts coincidentally overlaps with the final approval deadlines for multiple altcoin ETFs. Will the policy dividends and monetary easing resonate to inject new momentum into the crypto market? The result of this financial "chemical reaction" is worth everyone's attention.