Global market sentiment is optimistic: expectations of Fed interest rate cuts are boosting the stock market, and Bitcoin long-term holders are becoming increasingly steadfast.

On Tuesday, global stock markets rose for the fifth consecutive day, with optimism over Fed interest rate cuts spreading to Asia and triggering a buying frenzy for tech stocks. Meanwhile, on-chain analysis shows that long-term holders of Bitcoin (5 to 7 years) have not been dumping their tokens in large amounts, but are instead extending their holding period, indicating that the most steadfast investor group in this asset class is becoming increasingly resolute.

Driven by expectations of Fed rate cuts, global stock markets surged, with tech stocks leading the way.

On Tuesday, the MSCI Global Stock Index is expected to set a new closing high again. In Asia, tech giants like TSMC and Alibaba Group Holding Limited are leading the way, driving the indexes higher. Stock markets in South Korea, Taiwan, and Hong Kong are generally rising. In the United States, after the S&P 500 Index closed near record highs on Monday, its futures contracts continue to rise. European stock market contracts, however, are falling due to political issues in France.

The rally stemmed from a surge in bets on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with investors hoping that easing policy would boost U.S. businesses. In addition, with the Nasdaq Composite Index reaching new highs, there is a general "risk-taking" mood in the market. Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said investors remain bullish on the growth potential of the tech sector, which explains the continued inflow of money into the sector.

• Japan: The impact of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's resignation has affected the market, with the Nikkei 225 index hitting a new high during Tuesday's session, before giving back its gains.
• China: Export growth has slowed to its lowest point in six months, with a significant decline in shipments to the United States, but a surge in sales to other markets means China is still expected to achieve a record trade surplus.
• Indonesia: President Prabowo Subianto suddenly replaced the long-serving Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati, raising market concerns about the country's fiscal discipline. The Indonesian rupiah fell against the US dollar, and the local stock market also experienced a decline.

HSBC Asia-Pacific Chief Economist Frederic Neumann pointed out that in the coming days, Asian markets are likely to continue following the trends of the US market, as the US inflation data will clarify the interest rate path not only for the Fed but also for Asian central banks, including the People's Bank of China.

On-chain data shows: Bitcoin long-term holders are not selling, but are becoming "increasingly steadfast".

Despite the optimistic macroeconomic outlook, the crypto market still has its unique internal signals. According to the latest report from on-chain analysis company Glassnode, the "Realized Cap" of Bitcoin investors holding 5 to 7 years of historical tokens has decreased by 6.4 billion dollars over the past year. However, this is not due to dumping behavior.

(Source: Glassnode)

"Realized Market Capitalization" is a metric that measures the amount of capital that investors have put into cryptocurrency. When a token of a certain age is transferred, its age resets, and it is removed from the "Realized Market Capitalization" of that age group. However, there is another possibility: promotion. When an investor holds a token for longer than the upper limit of its age group, their token will enter a more "mature" category.

Data shows that although the realized market value of holders for 5 to 7 years has significantly decreased, the total realized market value of the three groups of 5 to 7 years, 7 to 10 years, and over 10 years has increased over the past year. This indicates that almost all of the "realized market value" flowing out of the 5 to 7 year group actually corresponds to the tokens of these steadfast holders (HODLers) being promoted to older age brackets. Glassnode points out that while this group still has about 385,000 Bitcoins sold after profit, this is just a tiny portion compared to the passive holding of most tokens. This fully illustrates that over time, the most loyal group of Bitcoin holders is becoming increasingly solid.

Conclusion

The optimistic sentiment in the global market resonates interestingly with the strong conviction of Bitcoin long-term holders. On one hand, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Fed are creating a favorable macro environment for global risk assets, including technology stocks; on the other hand, on-chain data reveals a long-term bullish sentiment within the cryptocurrency market. This combination of macro positive factors and micro firmness provides a solid foundation for the future trends of digital assets such as Bitcoin. Whether in the mainstream stock market or the crypto market, investors seem to believe that, driven by policy easing and core convictions, the growth potential in the future remains enormous.