#非农就业数据来袭#

Non-farm payrolls plummet: Is the US job market suddenly on "holiday"?
The non-farm payroll data for August was significantly lower than expected, as if the boss suddenly announced "next month we will reduce hiring," leaving workers completely bewildered. This is not a minor episode, but a signal flare of economic cooling. Weak employment means a decline in consumer spending, and businesses are hitting the brakes on expansion, casting a shadow over the dream of a soft landing for the U.S. economy.
But the market's thought process is quite strange: Non-farm data is bad? High probability of interest rate cuts! So the stock market is shouting "economic recession" while partying like it's a festival. U.S. Treasury yields are turning down, gold is rising, and Bitcoin is also riding the wave of popularity. Bad news suddenly transforms into "good news," and Wall Street's logic always makes people wonder: Is it because the data is bad that they have more to sing about?
From an alternative perspective, this is a typical case of "policy hijacking": poor data, market crying, and the Federal Reserve being forced to play the role of a caretaker. Over time, this economic game resembles a parent managing a misbehaving child, where the more the child cries, the more candy they receive. The problem is, there will come a day when the candy runs out.
Conclusion: The cold wind of employment is blowing in, the market is high in the short term, but not good in the long term. Smart players should not be thinking about "how much longer can it rise", but rather "will there still be candy next time I cry"?