The crypto world no longer has "iron rules": bull and bear cycles are outdated, and survival of the fittest is the new rule.

In the past, when talking about the crypto world, everyone believed in the iron law of "a four-year cycle of bull and bear markets," but by 2025, we realized that this logic no longer applied. The market has changed, and the way to play must change with it — the era of making money by simply waiting for the cycle is over; those who can survive and make money now are the ones who can adjust to the rhythm of the market.

Why has the old bull-bear pattern become ineffective?

First, let's talk about the roots. The two core changes have completely broken the past cycle logic:

The first is that the "myth" of Bitcoin halving has been shattered.
For veteran players, the first two halvings (2012 and 2016) really drove a major market movement — the issuance was cut from 50 coins to 25 coins, and then to 12.5 coins, with each time seeing a 50% reduction. When supply and demand tighten, prices naturally fluctuate wildly, creating significant opportunities. However, the third halving in 2024 will only reduce the issuance from 6.25 coins to 3.125 coins, with a reduction rate of only 6.25%. The market stimulus is negligible; let alone a major bull market, it hasn’t even stirred up any noticeable fluctuations. The strategy of making money by "waiting for the halving" is already outdated.

The second is that the Bitcoin ETF has completely rewritten the market landscape.
As soon as the ETF was released, it was like opening a "direct channel" for traditional capital—previously, the crypto world was a small pond, but now it is directly connected to the vast ocean of traditional finance. However, the new money coming in is almost entirely focused on Bitcoin, and it does not flow into altcoins at all.
In the past, the bull market was "Bitcoin rises first, then funds overflow to drive altcoins up," but now it's different. Traditional funds only recognize Bitcoin as the "compliant target," while surrounding altcoins are like vendors on the side of a highway, with customers all being drawn to the big supermarket (Bitcoin) at the intersection. Because of this, the long bear market that used to last three years is gone, but whenever there are fluctuations in the macro economy, the market will still experience short-term downturns—like last year, when there were really profitable opportunities only in the two months of October to December.

New opportunities in the crypto world: the market is small but the hot spots are dense, seizing rotation is more reliable than waiting for cycles.

Although there isn't the kind of "full bull market" as before, there are still plenty of money-making opportunities; they have just changed their form—from "making money off the cycle" to "earning by rotating through hotspots."
November 2024 will see meme coins soaring, and by December, it will shift to AI concepts leading the charge. In January 2025, intelligent agents will become the new trend. These hotspots emerge quickly and rotate just as fast, without any规律可言, but catching one can lead to significant gains.
This indicates that the crypto world is no longer a single market driven by "bull and bear" dynamics, but has entered a new stage of "multiple hotspots rotation." In this stage, no one can make money by just "lying flat during cycles"; instead, one must actively enhance their understanding: quickly grasp the logic when hotspots arise, and timely withdraw when the market cools down, without clinging to battles or being obsessed with past experiences—frankly speaking, in today's crypto world, it’s not about who can "endure," but rather who can "adapt quickly."

In the end, there has never been an eternal "iron law" in the crypto world, only the "survival rules" that change with the market. In the past, it was about waiting for cycles and relying on halving; now, it's about focusing on hotspots and practicing quick reactions—only those who can let go of outdated experiences and adjust themselves according to new rules can steadily make money in the current market.