#加密资产监管# Looking back at the development of this round of prediction markets, it inevitably reminds one of the scene when Bitcoin first emerged. From gray areas to compliance paths, from niche players to institutional entry, history is always surprisingly similar. The showdown between Polymarket and Kalshi is like the early exchanges' competition, one representing the ideal of decentralization, and the other a benchmark for compliance. Now, with the emergence of The Clearing Company, it attempts to find a balance between the two extremes; this hybrid approach may well be the direction of the future.

However, we must also be wary of excessive optimism. While the improvement of the regulatory environment and the influx of capital are indeed encouraging, they may also lead to bubbles. Do you remember the painful lessons after the ICO boom in 2017? Will today's prediction markets repeat the same mistakes? New players are emerging like bamboo shoots after a rain, but it remains to be seen whether they can withstand the test of the market.

The key is to grasp the long-term trend. The essence of prediction markets is information aggregation and risk pricing, which aligns closely with the concept of decentralization in blockchain. If we can find a balance between compliance and innovation, it is very likely to become an important bridge between traditional finance and the crypto economy in the future. However, the prerequisite is that we must learn from past lessons and move forward cautiously. After all, in this industry, optimists often make money, pessimists are often right, but only realists can laugh last.