The market is currently in a stage of intense long-short competition. Short-term fluctuations are severe, but the medium to long-term trend has not completely weakened yet.

From a technical indicator perspective, the current market signals are not consistent:

· Bearish signal: The 4-hour MACD shows that bearish strength is dominant, the short-term EMA moving averages show signs of turning down, and the trading volume did not effectively expand during the rebound (volume-price divergence), which limits the short-term upside potential.
· Bullish signals: The moving average system at the daily level is still showing a bullish arrangement, accompanied by the formation of a golden cross. At the same time, indicators like the RSI (Relative Strength Index) may enter the oversold zone after a sharp decline, suggesting that there might be an opportunity for a technical rebound.

On the news front, there are also intertwined factors of both bullish and bearish.

· Bullish factors: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell released dovish signals at the Jackson Hole annual meeting, indicating a high likelihood of a rate cut in September (the probability rose to over 85% at that time). Rate cuts are generally beneficial for high-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies. In addition, the long-term ecological development and application prospects of Ethereum (such as RWA real-world assets) are still viewed positively.
· Negative factors: There has been a continuous net outflow of funds from the Ethereum spot ETF, indicating that institutional investors' interest may have weakened in the short term. On the macroeconomic front, if the U.S. CPI data exceeds expectations, it could impact the Federal Reserve's rate cut pace, thereby putting pressure on the market.

Ethereum Operation Suggestions:

Stable (Swing) patiently wait for the price to drop to the 4200-4300 USD range before considering a phased accumulation, with a stop-loss set below 4150 USD. Enter at a more ideal price point to increase the safety margin, suitable for swing holding.
Trend-following (Right-side) If the price breaks through and holds above the resistance level of $4500 with significant volume, consider going long, with a stop loss set below $4350. Wait for the trend to become clear before entering, although the cost may be higher, the success rate could also be higher.

⚠️ Risk Control

· Strict Stop Loss: Whether holding a long position or opening a new position, it is essential to set a stop loss. Especially for long position holders, if the price effectively falls below the $4150 cost level, consider setting a stop loss to keep the losses within an acceptable range.
· Avoid heavy positions: Do not go for heavy or full positions just because you are optimistic about the market. Gradually building positions is an important means of controlling risk.
· Pay attention to macro events: Focus on the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting in mid-September (interest rate decision) and economic data such as the CPI in the United States, as these could become catalysts for significant market fluctuations.

Market information changes rapidly, and all strategies are not set in stone. It is recommended to respond flexibly in combination with real-time market conditions and your own risk tolerance.
The content represents only personal views and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is characterized by significant fluctuations, so caution is advised when entering the market. #加密市场回调# #Gate广场七夕心意# #特朗普罢免美联储理事库克#