On August 11th (pinned post), I mentioned that the market for the next period would be a repayment market, specifically manifested in:

1. The market shifts from a trend to a consolidation.

2. The amplitude of fluctuations switches irregularly.

3. The trends of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins have diverged;

The increase in trading difficulty and the decrease in the profit effect caused by the above three points.

$BTC Technical Analysis

1. The weekly MACD death cross is confirmed, temporarily leaning towards a震荡 adjustment similar to 24-3→24-8;
2. The adjustment level has now been confirmed to expand to the adjustment targeting the rise since 98200. If it falls below the 108 position, it will confirm an expansion targeting the rise since 74508. In terms that retail investors like to hear, this means that the position around 108 is very likely to be the support at this level.

3. Adjusting the wave is inherently very complex and difficult; no one can predict accurately. Relatively speaking, it is sufficient to know which market conditions are simple and which are difficult.

$ETH Technical Analysis

1. The difficulty lies in the divergence of the current trends of Bitcoin and Ethereum; Ethereum has shown a bullish pattern since it rose from 4060.

2. So, there are several possibilities for the rise since 4060: 1. It is in the process of forming a top, referring to the movement of Ethereum in May; 2. It is the first wave of a five-wave structure, and a complete five-wave rise will still be significant; 3. This is already the fifth wave, continuing to form a top.

In the cryptocurrency market, apart from the previous linear storyline where $SOL dominated a small portion for a while; the rest are only dominated by Bitcoin and Ethereum.

If Bitcoin drops, or Ethereum peaks, and other altcoins run, it would be a trap for me, so there is no need for analysis, because these coins are not part of the profit plan.

With my insufficient skills, I choose financial management in this market, and then watch the high-level teachers skillfully buy low and sell high, shedding tears of envy.