🎭 Powell's speech tonight: key points. Could an overture to a policy change be played? The entire financial world is on hold in anticipation!

👀 This evening, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) of the USA, Jerome Powell, will deliver one of his most important statements this year. The markets, holding their breath, are eagerly awaiting any hint of a forthcoming interest rate cut. Will the long-awaited overture to a change in monetary policy be heard? Let's find out. 🎻
🎯 What awaits the market? A brief guide to expectations. Powell will find himself in a difficult situation. On one hand, there is stubborn inflation, and on the other hand, market traders who have already priced in several rate cuts this year. 📉
Key points to pay attention to:
Tone and Mood: 🔮 Will Powell still be a "hawk" (hawkish), emphasizing the fight against inflation, or will he soften and turn into a "dove" (dovish)? Any mention that inflation is moving toward the 2% target will be met with enthusiasm.
Inflation data: 📊 He will almost certainly note insufficient progress at the beginning of the year ("lack of further progress"). The key question is how he will present it: as a temporary setback or as a threat to long-term goals?
Labor market strength: 💼 Strong employment data gives the Fed the opportunity to not rush into rate cuts. Will we hear that this is also a factor in keeping rates high?
The word "decrease" (cut): 🎤 The biggest surprise would be if Powell actually utters this word in the context of the near-term outlook. The market catches every comma in his speech.
🎼 Overture to easing or yet another act of harsh rhetoric? Many analysts believe that it is too late to expect direct signals about a rate cut in June. The inflation data has deteriorated too much. Most likely, Powell will lay the groundwork for a later start in September or even November (. 🗓️
Possible scenario: Powell will confirm the Fed's readiness to keep rates at the current level for as long as necessary, but may also hint that the next step will be a decrease, not an increase. This will be the "overture" — a hint that the score has already been written, but the conductor is waiting for his moment. ⏳
This arrangement will satisfy the market but will not trigger a fervent rally. A sharply "dovish" stance could ignite risk appetites, but it would appear extremely unexpected.
📈 The market is waiting for a clear signal: reaction to various scenarios. If Powell is a tough ) "hawk" (: 💔 Risk-off! Stocks ), especially the growth sector (, cryptocurrencies, and bonds may fall. The dollar will strengthen.
If Powell is a moderate "expectations manager": ➡️ Low volatility. The market may dip a little, but panic won't start. This is the base scenario.
If Powell unexpectedly soft "dove": 🚀
💥 Risk-on! Stocks, cryptocurrencies, and everything related to liquidity will surge. The rally could be powerful but unlikely.
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