On-chain analysis: Bitcoin maintains stable distribution, with no signs of sell pressure.

Bitcoin is currently trading around 113,000 USD, with a realized cap of ( continuing to grow steadily and spending activity mainly focused on coins under three months old. Take profit activities are still occurring positively, short term traders are fluctuating around the breakeven point, while the long term supply shows almost no signs of distribution.

On August 20th, Bitcoin closed at 113,599 USD, down 7.9% in a week, down 3.3% in 30 days, but still recorded a 1.7% increase in 90 days. The liquidity of the spot market shows signs of cooling, with a 7-day average volume of 2.68 billion USD/day, lower than the 30-day average of 2.88 billion USD. This decline reflects the weaker performance of the past week, but on-chain data shows orderly selling activity to realize profits, rather than panic selling.

) Real market capitalization and realized profit

The actual market capitalization of Bitcoin currently stands at 1.040 trillion USD, increasing by 8.98 billion USD over the past 7 days and 34.85 billion USD over the past 30 days. These figures almost match the realized profit/loss of ###NRPL(.

• NRPL 7 days: 8.59 billion USD
• NRPL 30 days: 33.25 billion USD

A small gap of )390 million USD in 7 days and 1.6 billion USD in 30 days( corresponds to the new issuance value from block rewards. With a reward rate of 3.125 BTC/block, an average of 450 BTC is mined daily, equivalent to 366 million USD in 7 days and 1.58 billion USD in 30 days. This indicates that the increase in actual capitalization is entirely explained by realized profits and issuance from miners, with no unusual factors.

![])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-0fcb76e55ab556a1c840ec515452acc2.webp(NRPL of Bitcoin from July 20 to August 19, 2025 )Source: CryptoQuant() SOPR and investor behavior

The SOPR indicators show that the market is taking profit steadily:

• aSOPR: 1,028 ### 7-day average: 1,033 (, 30 consecutive days above 1 → most spending is in a profit state.

![])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-2562c500e38654a7e3cf8325e80f698f.webp(aSOPR from July 20 to August 19, 2025 )Source: CryptoQuant(* STH-SOPR )short term investors(: 0.995 )7-day average: 1.002(, 24/30 days above 1 → many new investors are selling at breakeven or with a small profit.

![])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-b63c3dd17b5cb358631b3c1c9d528dc7.webp(STH-SOPR from July 20 to August 19, 2025 )Source: CryptoQuant(* LTH-SOPR )long term investors(: 1,718 )average 30 days: 2,21(, all 30 days above 1 → long term supply when shifting often brings significant profits, suitable for partial take profit behavior rather than widespread liquidation.

![])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-5775779d75a22e88fa346312933d4570.webp(LTH-SOPR from July 20 to August 19, 2025 )Source: CryptoQuant() Supply age: mainly from new coin

Data shows that 94.95% of the spending volume on August 19 came from coins under three months old. Among them:

• 0–1 days old: 83.27%
• 1–7 days old: 7.49%
• 1–3 months: 1.42%
• 3–12 months: 2.97%
• Over 1 year: 2.08%

In the past 30 days, the supply over one year old accounted for only 1.41% of the spending volume, indicating that almost all market activity came from short term supply, while long term coins remained "inactive".

![]###https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-c2aae6e40bb2ddcb8ce36f1e05efad16.webp(The spending output of Bitcoin gradually increased from July 20 to August 19, 2025 )Source: CryptoQuant() Coin Days Destroyed and NUPL

• CDD: 15.6 million, right at the 30-day average, with no sudden fluctuations. This implies that the long-term supply continues to remain "inactive."
• NUPL: 0.537 ### 30-day average: 0.561 (, placing the market in the Belief/Denial zone, indicating that most of the supply is still profitable and take profit activities are happening regularly.

![])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-f6a5543d2fea67b7fa7d21b69dcbd3e6.webp(The CDD of Bitcoin from July 20 to August 19, 2025 )Source: CryptoQuant() Data correlation

In the past 90 days, price volatility has the strongest correlation with the SOPR of short-term investors ###+0.36(, while aSOPR and LTH-SOPR are almost uncorrelated )+0.05 and +0.01(. Other indicators such as NRPL, CDD, and spot trading volume also show weak relationships. This reinforces the view that the current price dynamics are mainly driven by the behavior of short-term investors.

![])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-0dfa0b2444cacd07ffc6d865d0a1b286.webp(NUPL of Bitcoin from July 20 to August 19, 2025 )Source: CryptoQuant() Conclusion

On-chain data shows that the market is in a stable distribution phase, with no signs of selling pressure. Although prices and trading volumes have cooled down, real market capitalization is still increasing in line with realized profits and miner issuance. Short-term investors maintain balance around the breakeven point, while long-term investors only sell locally with high profits. Long-standing supply remains silent, not creating pressure on the market.

In the coming days, the factor to watch is the SOPR of short term investors. If this index falls below 1 for several consecutive days, it will be a signal that new investors are starting to cut losses, which usually leads to a stronger downward trend. However, currently the data still shows stability: new supply is being absorbed well, profits are being taken regularly, and there is no sign of tension in the market.

Vương Tiễn