The latest economic analysis shows that short-term interest rates in the United States may face a rise risk, while the market seems overly optimistic about the Fed's prospects for rate cuts.

In a recent report released by the investment experts at Capital Economics, it was pointed out that the current market expects at least two rate cuts from the Fed this year, reflecting a general belief among investors that the growth rate and inflation in the U.S. economy will further slow down. However, this expectation may be overly optimistic.

The report emphasizes that current market expectations may underestimate the resilience of the US economy and the persistence of inflation. Although economic growth has slowed, the labor market remains relatively strong, and while the inflation rate has decreased, it is still above the Fed's target level.

Regarding the bond market, analysis indicates that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is currently around 4.3%, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range of 50 basis points above and below the current level in the short term. This suggests that there is still a degree of uncertainty in the bond market regarding future economic trends and monetary policy.

Overall, investors need to take a cautious view of the market's expectations for interest rate cuts when formulating investment strategies, and closely monitor the Fed's policy signals and changes in economic data. Overly optimistic expectations for interest rate cuts may lead to excessive market reactions, increasing investment risks.