September altcoin bull may be a trap, November could be the iron bottom?

Recently, almost everyone in the market believes that September is altcoin season. I think the consensus among the retail investors has instead become a trap. Below, I will discuss from the perspectives of technical analysis, capital flow, cyclical patterns, and market sentiment:
1. Technical Aspect: The Game Between Key Support and Downward Space
1. The effectiveness of Bitcoin's support at $98,200 on June 22.
- Short-term pressure: Bitcoin is currently oscillating around $120,000. If it cannot break through the key resistance range of $140,000-$150,000 (with ETH needing to break through $4,800 simultaneously), it may trigger a technical correction.
- Extreme decline scenario: If it falls below $98,200, it is necessary to observe the support strength at the Fibonacci retracement level (such as $85,000 at 0.618). Historical data shows that Bitcoin often experiences "double bottoming" during bear markets, but extreme declines (such as over 95%) tend to occur during liquidity crises or regulatory black swan events. The current macro environment has not yet reached this threshold.
2. The Bottom Logic of Altcoins
- Market Cap Share and Fund Rotation: The current total market cap of altcoins is approximately $1.4 trillion. If Bitcoin dominance remains below 55%, funds may accelerate into altcoins. However, if BTC further surges to $140,000, altcoins may face a more severe siphoning effect.
- Valuation divergence: Leading projects (such as ETH, SOL) may only pull back by 30%-50%, while tokens without real use cases could go to zero. Attention should be paid to the technological upgrade progress of undervalued blue chips (such as BNB, XRP) and modular public chains (such as SUI, APTOS).
2. Capital Market: Liquidity Cycle and Institutional Behavior
1. The double-edged sword effect of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations
- Conditions favorable for altcoins: If the interest rate cut occurs in September (probability 83%-92%), it may stimulate risk assets in the short term, but one must be cautious of the "buy the expectation, sell the fact" market. Historical data shows that the main upward wave for altcoins typically starts 3-6 months after the rate cut.
- Potential risks: If inflation rebounds and leads to a delay in interest rate cuts, high-leverage altcoin positions may trigger a chain reaction of liquidations, exacerbating market volatility.
2. Institutional Positioning Trends
- ETF Fund Inflows: Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen a net inflow of $17 billion over the past 60 days, but if funds shift towards altcoin-related ETFs (such as ETH, SOL), it may accelerate sector rotation.
- Stablecoin issuance signal: When the market capitalizations of USDT and USDC exceed 100 billion USD, it usually indicates a liquidity turning point for altcoins. The current stablecoin supply is about 85 billion USD, which has not yet reached historical highs.
3. Periodic Patterns: Time Window of Market After Halving
1. Halving cycle and altcoin season start time
- Historical patterns: The peak window for Bitcoin halving is 500-550 days after the halving (April 2024 halving → peak around September-October 2025), followed by a surge in altcoin prices. However, if the market anticipates too early, the actual launch may be delayed until Q1 2026.
- Current stage: As of August 2025, still in the mid-phase of the post-halving bull market, the BTC target price of $140,000 - $150,000 has not yet been reached, and the systematic risks of altcoins have not been fully released.
2. Two Possible Paths for Altcoins at the Bottom
- Quick Clearance: If BTC falls below $98,000 and triggers panic selling, altcoins may quickly drop by 30%-50%, and then bottom out in November-December (partially in line with your prediction).
- Gradual bottoming: If BTC consolidates in the range of 100,000 to 120,000 USD, altcoins may complete their valuation repair through a long-term downward trend (6-12 months), with the bottom time window pushed back to 2026.
4. Market Sentiment and Strategy Recommendations
1. The contrarian indicator effect of the retail investor consensus
- Current contradiction: The market is hotly discussing the "September altcoin bull" which may overdraw expectations. If BTC fails to break through $140,000, a reversal in sentiment will lead to a sharp decline. However, if liquidity easing exceeds expectations, the altcoin season may still kick off.
- Operation Suggestions:
- Short sellers: Waiting for BTC to pull back to the range of 95,000-100,000 USD, or to build positions in batches after ETH breaks through 4,800 USD.
- Position holders: Focus on undervalued sectors (such as AI + blockchain, RWA), with a stop-loss line set at 20%-30%.
2. Risk Control in Extreme Scenarios
- Black Swan Response: In case of sudden negative regulation (such as the U.S. classifying ETH as a security) or a macroeconomic crisis, positions should be controlled within 5%, and priority should be given to compliant exchanges.
- Long-term perspective: Historical data shows that during bear market bottoms (such as in 2018 and 2022), altcoins have an average decline of 80%-90%, but quality projects can increase by 10-100 times in the next bull market.
Summary: Key Observations in the Bull-Bear Game
1. Short-term (1-3 months): Pay attention to whether BTC can break through $140,000 and if ETH can hold above $4,800. If it fails, it may trigger a deep correction in altcoins.
2. Medium term (6-12 months): If the Federal Reserve begins a rate cut cycle and the regulatory environment improves, November to December may become a temporary bottom for altcoins.
3. Long-term (over 1 year): Emerging sectors such as modular public chains and AI protocols may recover first, requiring early positioning in targets that resonate with both technical and fundamental aspects.
The current market has significant divergence, and it is recommended to avoid unilateral betting. Reducing risk through long-short hedging (such as BTC long + altcoin put options) is advisable. Historical experience indicates that overly relying on "retail investor consensus" often leads to misjudgment; rational analysis of macro indicators and project value is the key to survival.
My suggestion is that with the interest rate cut in September basically confirmed, there will be speculation in late August and early September, just before the rate cut. If Bitcoin breaks through again or altcoin reaches a new historical high, or if your holdings rise effectively, you should reduce your position or go to cash to hedge! Protecting profits is the most important thing at any time! #Gate七月透明度报告发布# #BTC ETF持仓破1530亿美元# #美联储终止新型活动监管#