Recent economic data from the United States presents a complex picture, leading to fluctuating market expectations for a Fed interest rate cut. The latest retail sales data shows that, driven by auto sales and major online promotions, the overall U.S. retail sector is experiencing a rise. However, the consumer confidence index unexpectedly declined, marking its first drop since April, while inflation expectations have risen.

The release of this data closely followed the July CPI and PPI reports. These two reports seem to convey different signals regarding whether the economy can withstand the impact of comprehensive import tariffs, but both indicate that inflation in the service sector remains high, with the PPI showing a month-on-month increase that reached a three-year high.

At the same time, there are significant divisions within the Fed regarding whether interest rates should be cut in September. This uncertainty is also reflected in stock market performance, as U.S. stocks have pulled back from historical highs. Chip stocks have generally fallen under the influence of the latest tariff threats. However, healthcare giant UnitedHealth surged significantly due to increased holdings by Buffett, pushing the Dow Jones Industrial Average close to its historical peak, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices have seen some declines.

In this complex economic environment, market participants need to closely monitor the upcoming economic data for clues regarding the Fed's potential interest rate cuts. Particularly noteworthy is the fact that comments from Fed Chairman Powell may have a significant impact on the market, and investors should remain vigilant to address potential market fluctuations.