According to the latest published data, the monetary policy in the United States may be about to undergo a significant turning point. The CME "Fed Watch" data from August 14 shows that market expectations for a rate cut by the Fed in September have reached unprecedented heights.

Specifically, the likelihood of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September has dropped to zero, with a 94.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, and even a 5.7% chance of a 50 basis point cut. This data reflects the market's strong expectation of the Fed soon adopting a loose monetary policy.

What is more concerning is that the market expectations for the monetary policy direction in October are more aggressive. Data shows that the probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged in October is also zero, while the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 31.8%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is as high as 64.4%, with even a 3.8% probability of a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points.

These data reflect that the market's concerns about the outlook for the U.S. economy are deepening, and it is expected that the Fed will take more aggressive interest rate cuts to stimulate economic growth. However, we should also note that these expectations may change with the development of new economic data and global events.

For investors, this potential shift in monetary policy could have far-reaching implications for the pricing of various assets, warranting close attention to subsequent developments.