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Recently, the Crypto Assets market has entered a wait-and-see period, with multiple factors intertwining to influence market direction. The US and China have reached a temporary agreement to suspend tariffs for 90 days, which has temporarily eased the market's risk aversion sentiment and created short-term Favourable Information for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other Crypto Assets. However, this is only a temporary buffer period, and the long-term trend still depends on whether both parties can reach a lasting agreement.
At the same time, the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has become the focus of market attention. With changes in inflation expectations, the market's anticipation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has cooled. CME data shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has dropped from 93.6% to 85.9%. The upcoming CPI data will be a key factor affecting market direction; whether the data is too hot or too cold could put pressure on the US stock market, thereby impacting the crypto assets market.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has recently shown a pullback after a breakout. After breaking through the $120,000 mark, it experienced a high-level retreat, forming a bearish candle with a long upper shadow. This 'breakout test + pullback confirmation' pattern, combined with an expansion of volume during the breakout and a contraction of volume during the pullback, indicates that the market is undergoing healthy high-level digestion.
Currently, the support level of $118,000 has become a key point in the short term. Market participants should closely monitor this level while keeping an eye on the progress of China-US trade negotiations and the performance of US inflation data, as these factors will jointly determine the short-term direction of the Crypto Assets market. In a highly uncertain environment, investors need to remain cautious and manage risks effectively.