Labubu Craze and NFT Surge: The Bubble and Insights of the Trendy Toy Market

Labubu is a fictional IP character that originated in 2015, created by Hong Kong artist Long Jiaseng. This character belongs to the "THE MONSTERS" series of a well-known designer toy company, and its design cleverly combines elements of dark elves from Norse mythology with Eastern aesthetics, forming a unique "ugly-cute" style that subverts the sweet image of traditional toys.

Labubu initially circulated in a small range as a picture book character, but after collaborating with a trendy toy company to launch blind boxes in 2019, it quickly ascended from the art world to become a globally recognized trendy toy IP.

In April 2024, a member of a well-known girl group showcased her Labubu doll on social media, referring to it as "my baby." This action triggered a buying frenzy in Southeast Asia, with prices in the Thai market even soaring to seven times the original price. Subsequently, several international stars also attached Labubu to their designer bags, elevating it from an ordinary toy to a "luxury accessory." This sparked a new wave of hype, creating a global craze and driving market prices up several times.

On June 10, the world's only first-generation mint-colored Labubu made its debut at an auction, selling for a high price of 1.08 million yuan. This event not only drove the stock prices of related companies to reach historic highs, with an increase of nearly 10 times within a year, but also made the company's founder the richest person in a certain province.

This phenomenon inevitably reminds people of the NFT craze that swept the globe a few years ago. Both have experienced the influence of celebrity effects, astronomical sales at auctions, and a phase of fervent public speculation. Although one is a physical asset and the other a virtual asset, their core essence is surprisingly similar.

In-depth analysis reveals that Labubu and NFTs stimulate consumers' "fear of missing out" (FOMO) psychology by creating scarcity. At the same time, both rely on social media for dissemination: Labubu enthusiasts showcase hidden editions on social platforms, while NFT players set their collectibles as social media avatars, both reflecting a strong social attribute.

So, will Labubu repeat the mistakes of NFTs? Let's take a look back at the development history of the company's other classic IPs. As the company's first blockbuster IP, MOLLY (born in 2006) created scarcity through cross-border collaborations with luxury brands and trendy labels, with some co-branded items priced over ten thousand yuan and secondary market premiums reaching 300%. However, the hype cycle for the new series has shortened to 6-12 months, and the prices of some styles have already been halved compared to their peak.

Another IP called SKULLPANDA saw its resale price drop by 40% within six months due to a surge in supply.

Although we cannot comprehensively compare the price fluctuations of all the company's IPs, some representative IPs have generally returned to calm after experiencing market speculation, and their prices have also seen a significant decline, which is quite similar to the development trajectory of NFTs.

Currently, the LABUBU, originally priced at 599 yuan, has been speculated to nearly 15,000 yuan in the second-hand market. This inevitably brings to mind another trendy toy, the block bear, which was all the rage over a decade ago. At that time, a collaboration with a luxury brand fetched a high price of 220,000 yuan, but today, most models are priced at only 30%-50% of their original price. So, can Labubu avoid such a fate?

History seems to have provided an answer. No matter how splendid the narrative, it will eventually face its day of reckoning; so far, it seems that only Bitcoin has not broken this rule. Moreover, the scarcity of Labubu only stems from official descriptions, whereas NFTs inherently possess absolute scarcity, which cannot be cracked or manipulated technically. From this perspective, the combination of NFTs and Labubu may be more worthy of discussion, but that is another topic worth exploring in depth.