2024 U.S. Election: The New Battlefield for Crypto Assets Market

The 2024 U.S. presidential election is about to enter a heated phase, and who will become the next occupant of the White House remains uncertain. This election not only concerns the future of American politics but also has a profound impact on global financial markets, particularly the Crypto Assets market which is especially sensitive.

It is worth noting that Crypto Assets have become an important issue in this election. The comments of some candidates frequently influence Bitcoin price fluctuations, and certain tech entrepreneurs have also publicly expressed their support for specific candidates. Bitcoin and the virtual asset market seem to be closely tied to the fate of certain political and business figures. Currently, Bitcoin's price is fluctuating around 70,000 dollars, and the direction of the election may become a catalyst for a breakthrough point.

The market has begun to place early bets on the election results, and this expectation has shown signs in multiple areas. The US stock market, US bond market, precious metals, and Crypto Assets markets all exhibit clear election-related characteristics. Recently, the trend of Bitcoin has shown a high degree of synchronization with the approval ratings of certain candidates, and the election trends in several swing states in the coming weeks will become key factors influencing the market.

From Wall Street to Silicon Valley, traders are deploying their investment strategies based on this expectation, transitioning from traditional finance to digital currency. However, political elections are always full of uncertainties, and any "accident" could lead to severe market fluctuations. Investors need to prepare in advance for various possible scenarios.

The Potential Impact of Different Election Results on Traditional Financial Markets

Candidate A wins:

1. Monetary Policy: It is expected to maintain a relatively loose monetary environment, which is beneficial for the stock market and other risk assets, especially in the industrial and traditional energy sectors; US bond yields may rise.

2. Tax policy: It may reduce the domestic corporate tax rate while increasing tariffs on foreign goods. This policy tendency will be beneficial for the prices of industrial raw materials such as copper and oil; it will also create favorable conditions for the development of technology companies.

3. International Relations: A commitment to quickly resolve certain international conflicts, but possibly maintaining involvement in other regions. These adjustments in foreign policy may affect the movement of defense stocks, but overall could bring a more stable environment to the market.

Candidate B wins:

1. Tax Policy: Advocates for increasing taxes on high-income groups and large enterprises, plans to raise the corporate income tax rate, and considers taxing financial transactions. These policies may affect the overall profitability of businesses but benefit areas that rely on fiscal gains.

2. Fiscal Expenditure: Support the expansion of health insurance coverage, increase social welfare spending, and promote the development of "care economy". These policies will boost related sectors such as healthcare and social services. At the same time, a large-scale climate plan is proposed, which will significantly benefit the new energy industry.

3. Overall Market Trend: If market expectations are broken, the stock market may experience significant fluctuations. The market needs time to find a new direction before the new government policies become clearer and investors readjust their expectations.

Potential Impacts of Different Election Results on the Crypto Assets Market

Candidate A wins:

1. Bitcoin may lead the breakthrough: As this candidate has repeatedly expressed support for Bitcoin, such as committing to include it in the national reserves and adjusting regulatory bodies, these proposals are expected to be gradually realized after their appointment. Considering that this candidate is known for "fulfilling campaign promises," Bitcoin is expected to lead the way to new highs.

2. Certain small Crypto Assets may seize opportunities: Entrepreneurs associated with this candidate may take advantage of this momentum to push certain Crypto Assets back into the market spotlight.

3. Certain encryption projects may drive the DeFi ecosystem: The crypto assets related to this candidate's camp are likely to take this opportunity to become the new focal point in the market. This will not only bring rising opportunities for related projects but is also expected to promote the prosperity of the entire DeFi ecosystem, thereby driving up the price of Ethereum (ETH).

Candidate B wins:

1. Regulatory Situation: The existing strong regulatory approach may continue. Regulatory agencies' policies are likely to maintain a tough stance, and overall enforcement efforts are expected to remain unchanged, which will affect the institutionalization process of Crypto Assets.

2. Market Direction: As the current market has already priced in the victory of another candidate, if expectations fall short, Bitcoin may face a significant pullback. According to a certain analysis agency, it could drop by 10% by the end of the year. The market needs to establish a new valuation logic.

3. Delaying institutional entry: The candidate's attitude towards Crypto Assets is somewhat ambiguous. Although they express support for the development of digital assets to maintain national competitiveness, they lack specific policy details. This uncertainty may affect investor confidence and delay the pace of institutional entry.

Long-term Impact Analysis

Regardless of which candidate wins, the development of the Crypto Assets market in 2025 and beyond will face opportunities and challenges:

1. Positive Factors: The relevant policies of the digital currency market may gradually be implemented, including incorporating Crypto Assets into reserve assets, restructuring the management framework of regulatory agencies, and formulating comprehensive regulatory policies. The gradual realization of these factors will drive the market to continue rising until it reaches a temporary peak.

2. Potential Risks: As the effects of short-term financial stimulus policies gradually wane, the U.S. economy may face recession and stagflation risks. In this case, market funds may chase assets that have increased the most, are the most liquid, and are most easily influenced by market sentiment, but have lower actual application value, such as Bitcoin.

3. Uncertainty: If other significant events occur during the tenure of the new government, the digital currency market may experience severe fluctuations. It is risky to overly tie the development prospects of Crypto Assets to a specific person or event; while there may be short-term gains as a result, it will inevitably entail growing pains when trying to break free from this influence.

The results of the U.S. election have not yet been revealed, and every statement from the two candidates stirs the nerves of the market. Regardless of the outcome, investors need to maintain a clear mind, pay attention to the progress of policy implementation and changes in market expectations, reasonably grasp opportunities while ensuring risk control, and avoid being overly influenced by short-term market sentiments. In this period full of uncertainty, maintaining rationality and flexibility will be key to formulating investment strategies.