As the monthly close approaches, the market will greet a series of important events. The Fed meeting and US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) are about to be announced, and these key indicators may guide the direction of Bitcoin. Before these important data are released, the market seems to choose to observe above $3800.

However, investors should be wary of the potentially negative data that may emerge in the next 30 days, which could lead to prices dropping back to around $3600. It is worth noting that both the weekly and monthly charts are at resistance levels, and the approaching monthly close adds to the market's uncertainty, thus cautioning against the possibility of a false breakout.

Recently, both the bulls and bears seem to be relatively weak. Today, the market experienced a rapid surge, pushing the price up to $3940, a move interpreted as a short squeeze or long liquidation. However, if the price turns down again, investors need to be wary of the risk of excessive long positions.

In such a complex and volatile market environment, investors need to maintain a clear mind and closely monitor various economic indicators and market trends to timely adjust their investment strategies. Whether bullish or bearish, a cautious attitude and effective risk management are essential in the current market situation.