#ETH#

Today's trend forecast
- **Baseline Scenario (60% Probability)**:
If ETF fund flows continue (especially during European trading hours), ETH will test the **3040-3080 USD** range again, and the closing price is expected to stabilize above 3000 USD.
- **Callback Scenario (30% Probability)**:
Leverage long liquidation triggered short-term selling pressure, falling back to the **$2885** support zone, but institutional buying may enter at lower prices.
- **Breakthrough Scenario (Probability 10%)**:
A breakout volume surpassing $3120, quickly reaching **$3323** (arbitrage gap area).

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### Operation Suggestions
1. **Short-term Traders**:
- Break through 3000 USD and increase hourly trading volume to chase long positions, target 3080 USD;
- If it breaks below $2945, then stop loss and short it back to $2885.
2. **Medium to Long-term Holders**:
- Pay attention to the opportunity to accumulate positions in batches below $2800, and wait for the Q4 upgrade (Pectra) and the fermentation of institutional holding cycles.

> Today, we need to closely monitor the **ETF fund flow data** (expected to be updated at 18:00 Beijing time) and the **CME futures opening gap**, as these two will dictate the intraday volatility direction.