Recently, there has been a strange divergence in the cryptocurrency market: Bitcoin is breaking historical highs one after another, while Ethereum not only failed to rise in tandem but also fell into a continuous dip, and at certain times even dropped sharply. This is reminiscent of the cryptocurrency market crash of "5/19" in 2021; is Ethereum preparing to lead a group of altcoins to recreate that bloody history? According to public information, there have been no serious negative news regarding Ethereum lately. Whether it is the progress of ecological construction, aiding technological upgrades, or the dynamics of project implementation, there are no negative factors that could cause a sharp drop in price. Based on market indicators and capital flow, we can conclude that although new funds are entering the current market, the overall scale is still insufficient. I have repeatedly emphasized that there are natural limits to the upward momentum of the market in the absence of fundamental changes in the macroeconomy and the fundamental foundations of the cryptocurrency industry.

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Bitcoin's recent rally has reached an all-time high, and to achieve this landmark breakout, liquidity had to be withdrawn from the alt-led market led by Ether. After all, Bitcoin's huge market cap determines that for every percentage increase, a significant investment is needed. This capital-sucking effect creates a market structure that makes Bitcoin's current rise decidedly unhealthy. Although Bitcoin has successfully updated its all-time high, this has come at the expense of the deterioration in the market position of other crypto assets such as Ether, which has led to a serious imbalance of funds in the market in the short term. At the same time, the sharp swings in the Ether market have also reached the goal of liquidating long positions, and many investors looking for growth have been forced to close their positions amid a continuous decline.
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After conducting today's in-depth intraday analysis, I came to the following conclusion: Bitcoin is likely to reach a gradual small peak before a significant shift occurs in macroeconomic fundamentals, such as a clear timeline for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The reason it is called a "small peak" is that, judging by overall market sentiment and capital distribution, even if Bitcoin pulls back, its decline is relatively limited, and a sharp reversal of "sharp rise and dip" is unlikely. A more likely trend is that Bitcoin will emerge from the "digging a hole" pattern, which is the "golden hole" mentioned last week, and build momentum for the subsequent market through a short-term correction. The situation with Ethereum is more delicate, and it is likely to reach a node of gradual delivery. Due to the influence of many complex factors on its price trend, including the subsequent effect of the Shanghai upgrade and increased competition in the Layer 2 ecosystem, there is significant uncertainty regarding the future trend of Ethereum. It is expected that by the end of the month, Ethereum will demonstrate a wide range of fluctuations, with bulls and bears fiercely competing for key prices.
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