Powell's May 8 Speech Preview: Analysis of the Federal Reserve's Policy Stance and Rate Cut Path

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver a monetary policy statement and hold a press conference at 2:30 AM Beijing time on May 8. This meeting is the third FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve in 2025, and the market generally expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged, but Powell's remarks will provide key guidance for the policy path in the second half of the year. Below are the core predictions and analysis:
1. Policy stance: Maintain a wait-and-see approach, emphasize data dependence.
当前美国经济"硬数据"表现强劲,3月核心PCE通胀同比2.6%,4月非农就业新增17.7万,失业率稳定在3.8。 尽管 Trump administration Shi 压 interest rate cut,美偔储料将继续"按兵不动",reaffirmation"不急于调整interest rate"的立场,强调需观察关税策略对通胀和经济的影响。 会议声明可能微调经济描述,将"经济活动稳步扩张"改为"放缓",以反映QatGDP 收缩的现状。
II. Keynote Focus: The Dual Challenge of Inflation and Tariffs
Powell will focus on responding to two major issues:
1. Inflation Resilience: Although the pressure on commodity prices has eased, housing inflation remains significantly lagged and requires more time to reflect data improvements. Powell may reiterate the goal of "ensuring that one-time price increases do not evolve into persistent inflation."
2. Tariff Impact: Trump's tariff policy may lead to increased import costs and supply chain disruptions, and the Federal Reserve needs to assess its long-term effects on inflation expectations and economic growth. Wells Fargo points out that in the current uncertainty, the Federal Reserve must balance the dual responsibilities of "curbing inflation" and "preventing recession."
3. Timing of interest rate cuts: The earliest may start in July, but the threshold has increased.
The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time in July and to cut rates another 1-2 times before the end of the year. However, institutions like Goldman Sachs believe that the Federal Reserve has set a higher threshold for rate cuts and needs to see clear evidence of a significant weakening in the labor market or a sustained cooling of inflation. Citigroup predicts a total interest rate cut of 125 basis points for the year, but the timing depends on labor market data.
4. Independence Disputes: Responding to Trump's Pressure
Trump recently criticized Powell as "stubborn," but Powell is expected to reaffirm the independence of the Federal Reserve, avoiding politicized statements while emphasizing that policy adjustments are based solely on economic data.
Conclusion
The core signal of this meeting is "continued wait-and-see, rate cuts not yet in sight." If economic data remains resilient, the rate cut in July may be further delayed; if tariff shocks lead to a slowdown in growth or inflation falls below expectations, a loosening window may open in the second half of the year. Investors need to pay attention to Powell's statements on "whether policy restrictions are sufficient," which may imply future interest rate hike