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30x Bitcoin Surge by 2030? Inside Ark Invest's Bold Prediction
Key Insights
The market is turning green once again, with Bitcoin seriously contending for a break above the $95,000 zone.
Amid this bullishness, Ark Invest has just raised its price target for Bitcoin by a wide margin.
The asset manager now sees the cryptocurrency hitting a possible high of $2.4 million per coin by the end of 2030 (a mere 5 years from now).
The investment firm, led by its CEO Cathie Wood, has justified its prediction with the ongoing increase in institutional interest for Bitcoin, as well as its adoption in emerging markets and its increasing role as a mainstream financial asset.
A New Forecast for a New Era
Ark Invest released its most recent report on 24 April. Within this report, the company pointed out three price scenarios for Bitcoin’s performance by 2030.
The bear case now sits at around $500,000, with the base case at $1.2 million and the bull case now at a staggering $2.4 million.
These predictions are a major jump from the company’s earlier outlook in February, which saw Bitcoin’s bear, base, and bull cases at $300,000, $710,000, and $1.5 million, respectively.
Interestingly, Ark Invest’s new outlook is based on the belief that Bitcoin is becoming more and more of a legitimate financial asset.
More importantly, Bitcoin could be on its way to rival or even beat gold in terms of market value, according to this outlook.
Institutional Investment and Its Role
ARK’s updated price model is based on Bitcoin’s ability to penetrate six major sectors in the finance space, including institutional investment, national reserves, corporate treasuries, digital gold positioning, adoption in emerging markets, and Bitcoin-based financial services.
Among these six, institutional investment stands as the most impactful, where in ARK’s bull scenario, institutional investors will allocate around 6.5% of the global $200 trillion financial market to Bitcoin.
This alone could account for over 43% of the total market value in the $2.4 million scenario.
So far, Institutional adoption has already kicked off, with major firms like large asset managers, pension funds, hedge funds, and publicly traded companies warming up to Bitcoin.
The launch of the 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US (including ARK + 21 Shares' product) stands as one of the first requirements for this outlook.
Digital Gold and National Reserves
Another major driver for this outlook, according to Ark Invest, is Bitcoin’s growing narrative as “digital gold.”
According to the firm, an optimistic scenario would see Bitcoin capture as much as 60% of gold’s $18 trillion market cap.
For a long time, Gold has been seen as a hedge against inflation, as well as a store of value.
Keep in mind that these are qualities that Bitcoin currently embodies, especially among younger and more tech-savvy investors.
More than this, Bitcoin’s new role as a national reserve asset in the US (and likely other countries in the future) adds another layer of legitimacy.
While Bitcoin isn’t a reserve asset in countries like El Salvador, the country has been accumulating the cryptocurrency for years.
Ark Invest expects this trend to continue on a global scale, especially in countries with unstable currencies or inflationary economies.
So is $2.4 million realistic?
For starters, if Bitcoin were to hit ARK’s $2.4 million target, its market cap would balloon to approximately $49.2 trillion.
This is more than double of gold’s current market cap, and close to the combined GDPs of the U.S. and China.
While this kind of growth is ambitious, it is not unheard of in disruptive technologies, especially one like Bitcoin with a trillion-dollar head start.
Disclaimer: Voice of Crypto aims to deliver accurate and up-to-date information, but it will not be responsible for any missing facts or inaccurate information. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile financial assets, so research and make your own financial decisions.