Bitcoin soars past $74k! The United States officially blocks the Strait of Hormuz in Iran, but progress is being made in US-Iran negotiations.

The United States has imposed sanctions and accused Iran of economic terrorism, but negotiations between the two sides are still making progress. International oil prices have retreated, driven by MicroStrategy’s $1 billion Bitcoin purchase, pushing the rebound past $74,000. Experts suggest that short covering could further boost the coin’s price.

The U.S. officially sanctions the Strait of Hormuz, but negotiations still show signs of progress

Peace talks between the U.S. and Iran have failed to make breakthroughs. The U.S. sanctions on ships entering and leaving Iranian ports and coastal areas have taken effect, but Iran has yet to relent and open the Strait of Hormuz, retaliating by telling the American public: Prepare to miss cheap oil.

U.S. Vice President JD Vance criticized this, stating that Iran’s actions to hinder traffic through the Strait of Hormuz constitute “economic terrorism.” Vance emphasized that both sides made progress during weekend talks, and the next phase of peace negotiations depends on Tehran. If Iran can meet the U.S. conditions regarding its nuclear program, reaching an agreement would benefit both parties.

Regarding oil prices, amid market expectations that diplomatic negotiations still have room to continue, international crude oil prices have pulled back after surpassing $100. The global benchmark Brent crude fell about 2.2% to $97.20 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also declined over 2% to around $96.90.

Image source: CNBC CNBC International Crude Oil Prices WTI CRUDE

In response to the current situation, Abas Aslani, senior researcher at the Tehran Middle East Strategic Studies Center, believes that the U.S. sanctions aim to increase leverage at the negotiation table; Australian Federal Bank analyst Vivek Dhar states that this blockade directly threatens Iran’s daily export of about 1.7 million barrels of crude oil, further tightening the global crude and refined oil markets.

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright predicts that oil prices may peak in the coming weeks until the Strait of Hormuz resumes substantial commercial vessel traffic, after which prices are expected to gradually decline.

U.S. stocks and Bitcoin both rebound

Although tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high, and the U.S. has initiated sanctions, risk asset markets have not suffered.

The Nasdaq index rose 1.2% against the trend, and Bitcoin successfully erased weekend losses. As oil prices fell back below $100, Bitcoin climbed steadily during Monday’s U.S. trading hours, reaching $74,450 as of the time of writing (4/14), up 4.64% for the day.

On Monday U.S. time, Strategy, led by Michael Saylor, announced that last week it spent $1 billion to buy 13,927 Bitcoin, bringing its total holdings to 780,897 coins.

Strategy did not raise funds through issuing common stock; instead, it issued $1 billion worth of STRC preferred shares with an 11.5% yield.

On Monday U.S. time, STRC’s trading volume hit a record high of $770 million, leading the market to speculate that Strategy will launch a larger-scale Bitcoin purchase this week.

Image source: Strategy Strategy’s Bitcoin Reserves Dashboard

Selling pressure temporarily eases, and short covering could further boost Bitcoin

Regarding the current state and outlook of the cryptocurrency market, Japanese crypto analyst 仮想 NISHI pointed out that Bitcoin initially dipped briefly due to the failed negotiations and news of the U.S. counter-blockade of the Iran Strait. But after Trump and Iran’s judiciary chief Mohseni Ejei both signaled willingness to continue negotiations, market over-caution regarding Middle East tensions has eased.

Meanwhile, crude oil prices have fallen from a high of $105, significantly easing the heavy pressure on risk assets and providing a foundation for Bitcoin’s strong rebound.

Analyzing derivatives market data, open interest driven by market orders has surged, while funding rates have plunged deep into negative territory, indicating the market is rapidly accumulating exploratory short positions.

仮想 NISHI further noted that early Monday, a large influx of buy orders in the spot market confirmed that this upward trend is led by spot buying. The put/call ratio (PCR) in the options market has dropped significantly, reflecting that investors’ pessimism has improved and is gradually turning bullish.

Looking ahead, Bitcoin remains vulnerable to news related to the Strait of Hormuz, and investors should closely monitor the progress of U.S.-Iran peace negotiations. Since funding rates are currently deeply negative, 仮想 NISHI predicts that short covering could become a key driver for further Bitcoin gains.

Further reading:
Trump warns the UK to stay out of it: Iran is basically destroyed, the U.S. won’t help anymore, go get your own oil if you want it!