Analysis: The inflow of Ethereum ETF is not equivalent to real spot buying, as traditional funds prefer to combine futures strategies.

BlockBeats news, on September 9, on-chain data analyst Murphy published an analysis on "Whether ETF net inflow equals real buying demand". Since the launch of BTC and ETH spot ETFs, the inflow/outflow of funds has become one of the most closely watched indicators in the market. Generally, inflows are seen as a signal of institutional investors continuously increasing their positions. Whether the net inflow of the ETF can directly represent real buying demand has different trading logic for the two mainstream assets, BTC and ETH. Analyzing the changes in BTC's CME open interest and ETF holdings shows that the rise in BTC's price (black line rising) is highly correlated with the net inflow of the ETF (red line upward). In contrast, the change in CME futures holdings (yellow bars) is much smaller than that of the ETF. This indicates that traditional funds mainly allocate to BTC by directly buying the spot ETF as an investment exposure, rather than establishing leverage or arbitrage positions through futures. The rise in BTC is largely driven by real buying demand in the spot market, with traditional funds more willing to hold long-term. Analyzing the changes in ETH's CME open interest and ETF holdings shows that the rise in ETH's price (black line rising) is also associated with ETF inflows (blue line upward). However, unlike BTC, the changes in ETH's futures holdings (purple bars) are rising synchronously and constitute a significant proportion, with some periods even reaching over half of the ETF inflows. This indicates that traditional funds in ETH are more about a combination strategy of spot plus futures, which includes: basis arbitrage: buying the spot ETF while shorting futures to earn basis income (direction neutral); directional trading: but not purely relying on ETF spot-driven like BTC.