QCP Capital: The market is consolidating in anticipation of the CPI data released this Thursday, and the likelihood of further escalation in trade frictions with the U.S. is relatively low.

On September 8, QCP Capital released a latest report stating that after last Friday's non-farm payroll data unexpectedly fell short of expectations, stock futures continued to rise. This data confirms the trend of a weak job market since June, when the record of 53 consecutive months of job growth was broken. As the market bets on a reduction of 72 basis points in interest rates within the year, the two-year U.S. Treasury yield has also fallen to a new annual low. However, the risk appetite brought about by the Fed's interest rate cut expectations has not spilled over into the crypto space. Despite the stock market rebound and gold reaching new highs, crypto assets have shown independent movements, continuing to consolidate sideways over the past week. The market may interpret this sideways movement as a bearish signal: the risk reversal indicator shows a surge in demand for put options, especially for contracts expiring in September. However, some viewpoints suggest that this actually highlights the resilience of crypto assets – even though Strategy was removed from the S&P 500 index, Bitcoin still holds firm at the $110,000 level; despite five consecutive days of fund outflows from spot ETFs, Ethereum remains stable above $4,250. QCP Capital believes that this lack of direction more reflects the market's cautious attitude before the release of U.S. inflation data on Thursday. Short-term implied volatility remains high, and this situation may continue until the CPI data is released. If the inflation data exceeds the expected value of 0.3%, it could complicate the Fed's interest rate cut path. Although the probability is low, the market is not unprepared for this considering the impact of tariff factors. Even if tariff policies lead to a brief spike in data, given the current economic situation, the likelihood of the Trump administration further escalating trade frictions is low. Therefore, unless this week's data triggers an excessive reaction, the crypto market will still gain solid support in the absence of major catalysts.