The 7th Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting is about to take place, and there are only two scenarios for the BTC (Bitcoin) trend:

Script 1: No interest rate cut in May, the market has long anticipated this, and BTC will at most see a slight pullback. This bearish news has already been digested, and the pullback is precisely an excellent opportunity to go long.
Script 2: A direct interest rate cut in May will certainly cause BTC to soar, breaking the $100,000 mark in no time and starting a new round of skyrocketing market trends. I firmly believe that there will definitely be an interest rate cut in June, and before that, the best strategy is to buy on dips. It is expected that BTC will refresh its historical high before the interest rate cut in June, and then it will correct to the $80,000 range.
In the current market, institutions are frantically buying. Once BTC breaks through $100,000, $3 billion in short positions will be instantaneously liquidated, which is the "fat meat" that the whales have long coveted. The recent trend is particularly evident; the daily highs quickly become the lows after just a few days, with prices continuously pushed higher by funds. The shorts are getting more and more trapped; how could the whales easily crash the market to let them break even?
Although the market bets that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in May is as high as 92.3%, the impact of this decision on the financial and crypto markets is far more complex than it appears:
1. The Triple Shock of Financial Markets
1. Short-term volatility narrows: As long as the interest rate decision meets expectations, investors will tend to be cautious. Bitcoin and other mainstream coins are likely to first test the support level, and once the Federal Reserve releases a "dovish" signal, prices will immediately rebound, with market sentiment quickly shifting according to policy signals.
2. Intensified mid-term game: Even if there is no interest rate cut in May, the market has already bet on the timing of the rate cut in advance. If the Federal Reserve expresses a "wait-and-see" approach on inflation, speculative funds will flood in, and altcoins are likely to experience a wave of speculation.
3. Reversal of capital flows: High interest rates have made US dollar assets more attractive, and some crypto market funds will flow back to traditional finance. Stablecoins such as USDT will also be implicated, and price fluctuations are inevitable in the short term.
2. Opportunities and Risks in the Cryptocurrency Market
A low interest rate environment has always been a positive factor for crypto assets. Even if the interest rates remain unchanged this time, as long as the market has confidence in the easing policies, funds will continue to flow in. From the trend perspective: in the short term, prices will stabilize and digest the news; in the medium term, there will be games around policy expectations; and the long-term trend will depend on the flow of funds and market sentiment.
Overall, the Federal Reserve's inaction can alleviate short-term liquidity pressure, but in the long run, it still needs to closely monitor inflation data and policy shifts. The market is likely to maintain a volatile upward trend, and grasping the rhythm is essential to seize the benefits!