Gate News 消息，3 月 19 日，据 PolyBeats 监测，在预测市场 Polymarket 上，一个地缘政治话题 502 笔交易、胜率 69% 的 Smart Money 地址投入 1.2 万美元，在「乌克兰是否会在今年同意不加入北约」买入「否」，目前「是」的概率为 24%。
随着特朗普政府积极推动停火谈判，华盛顿可能以对乌军事及财政援助为筹码，施压基辅接受包含「暂缓加入北约」在内的和平框架。同时，俄罗斯始终将阻止乌克兰加入北约作为和谈的绝对底线与核心诉求。
目前，加入欧盟和北约已被正式写入乌克兰宪法，并构成现政府「胜利计划」的基石。在付出了巨大的战争代价后，公开签署放弃加入北约的协议在乌克兰国内面临极大的舆论与政治阻力，现任政府极难在内部做出此类妥协。
注：根据其过往交易画像判断，该交易者并非押注事件是否实际发生，存在开仓后在某一时间点止盈、止损的行为。账户地址：0xd44e974a3edb232aa4aedbdcc59792b76a5f67e2。
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