XRP Today News: Fed interest rate cut expectations and ETF demand are key driving forces, XRP is gearing up to challenge the 2.35 dollar resistance level.

On November 25, XRP experienced a profit-taking pullback after the listing of Franklin and Grayscale's XRP Spot ETF, with the price falling back to $2.2003, a daily decline of 1.26%. Although the total inflow on the first day of the ETF was $164 million, it did not meet market expectations, causing XRP to briefly drop below the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages. Meanwhile, weak U.S. employment and retail data pushed the Fed's December rate cut probability to 84.8%, providing a downside buffer for XRP. Analysts pointed out that if ETF inflows continue to improve and the macro environment warms up, XRP is expected to break through the $2.35 resistance level, initiating a new round of pump.

ETF Debut Shows Divergence: XRP Faces Short-term Pressure While Long-term Opportunities Exist

On November 25, the long-awaited Franklin XRP ETF (XRPZ) and Grayscale XRP ETF (GXRP) officially landed on the trading platform, with net inflows on the first day of $62.59 million and $67.36 million, respectively. Although the total scale reached $164 million, this figure is still lower than the previous record of $243 million for the first day of the Canary XRP ETF (XRPC), reflecting the cautious attitude of institutional investors in the current volatile market conditions. It is worth noting that XRP rose by 17% in the two trading days before the ETF listing, significantly outperforming Bitcoin, which only rose by 4% during the same period, indicating a characteristic of advance capital positioning.

The underperformance of ETF inflows is under pressure from a net outflow of $151 million from Bitcoin Spot ETFs on the same day. Since November, the cumulative net outflow from Bitcoin Spot ETFs has reached $3.69 billion, dragging the Bitcoin price down to a low of $80,523 on November 21. This phenomenon of capital diversion highlights the competitive landscape within the cryptocurrency market, but also sets the stage for the decoupling of XRP from Bitcoin's trends. Historically, emerging asset classes often experience a transition from relying on mainstream asset fluctuations to forming independent pricing logic after obtaining standalone ETF products.

For medium to long-term investors, the launch of the ETF is still a milestone event. It not only provides a compliant channel for traditional financial institutions to allocate XRP but may also promote XRP as one of the choices for corporate treasury assets. Currently, Ripple is applying for a U.S. chartered bank license; if approved, it will further enhance XRP's position in the cross-border payment and asset reserve fields. A short-term price pullback instead creates a window for institutional accumulation, and it is crucial to observe the sustainability of subsequent capital inflows.

The Fed's Policy Shift is Imminent: How Interest Rate Cut Expectations Reshape the Crypto Market Landscape

The continuous weakening of U.S. economic data is quietly changing the Fed's policy path. The ADP employment data released on November 25 showed a four-week average decrease of 13,500 jobs, while the retail sales control group fell 0.1% month-on-month, and the core producer price index annual rate dropped to 2.6%. These indicators collectively point to a trend of economic slowdown, causing the market's expectation of a rate cut by the Fed in December to soar from 50.1% on November 18 to 84.8%, reaching a new high for the year.

From the perspective of the transmission mechanism, the expectation of interest rate cuts affects XRP pricing through two paths. On one hand, loose monetary policy usually boosts the preference for risk assets, guiding funds from safe-haven assets like government bonds to the cryptocurrency market. On the other hand, a decline in interest rates reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding crypto assets, providing fundamental support especially for tokens like XRP that have real-world application scenarios. Historical data shows that during the interest rate cut cycles in 2019 and 2020, the excess returns of XRP relative to traditional assets exceeded 200%.

It is worth noting that the current U.S. economy is showing a complex situation of “falling inflation but resilient consumption.” Although retail sales in September decreased month-on-month, the absolute value remains at historical highs, indicating that demand-driven inflation pressure has not been completely eliminated. This means that the Fed may remain cautious in its rate-cutting pace, especially when FOMC members speak in a hawkish tone, making it easy for market expectations to undergo rapid corrections. Investors should pay close attention to the non-farm payroll data to be released on November 26 and statements from Fed officials, as these will be key bases for judging the timing of policy shifts.

The Evolution of XRP's Correlation with Bitcoin: From Follower to Independent Player

The cryptocurrency market has historically exhibited significant correlation effects, but XRP's recent performance is breaking this trend. From November 23 to 25, during three trading days, the 30-day price correlation coefficient between XRP and Bitcoin dropped from 0.85 to 0.72, indicating a divergence in their movements. This divergence is primarily due to two structural changes: one is the independent funding channel for XRP Spot ETF, and the other is the unique narrative of Ripple's ecosystem development.

From the perspective of fund flows, although Bitcoin ETFs have seen continuous outflows, XRP ETFs are still maintaining a net inflow status. This contrast indicates that investors are making differentiated allocations among different crypto assets, rather than simply viewing the entire sector as homogeneous assets. Particularly at the regulatory level, if the market structure bill currently being reviewed by the U.S. Congress is passed, it could provide a clearer compliance framework for tokens like XRP that are recognized as non-securities, further reinforcing their independent status.

From a technical perspective, XRP and Bitcoin have essential differences in their mining mechanisms, supply models, and application scenarios. Bitcoin plays more of a “digital gold” role in value storage, while XRP focuses on the practical function of cross-border payment settlements. As the number of banks connected to the RippleNet network increases to over 300, and the daily transaction volume exceeds 1.5 million, XRP gradually forms a fundamental support independent of Bitcoin's price cycle. This differentiation in fundamentals will ultimately continue to manifest through the differences in price volatility.

XRP key price levels and market sentiment indicators

Support Level Distribution:

2.2 psychological level → 2.0 integer support → 1.9112 technical level → 1.8205 trend line

resistance level:

2.35 USD recent high → 2.3764 USD (50-day EMA) → 2.5245 USD (200-day EMA) → 2.8-3.66 USD range

Market Sentiment Indicator:

Fear and Greed Index: 45 (Neutral to Cautious)

Futures open interest: increased by 12% month-on-month

Net withdrawal volume of the exchange: positive for 5 consecutive days

Technical Analysis of Bullish and Bearish Struggles: Key Breakthroughs Determine Mid-term Trends

(Source: TradingView)

From the daily level observation, XRP closed at 2.2003 USD on November 25, which not only broke below the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages but also formed a “bearish engulfing” candlestick pattern. This technical formation usually indicates short-term adjustment pressure, but when combined with volume analysis, the trading volume that day decreased by 18% compared to the previous day, indicating that the selling pressure mainly came from short-term profit-taking rather than trend-based selling. Therefore, the defense situation of the 2.2 USD support level will become the focus of contention between bulls and bears.

The moving average system currently exhibits a bearish arrangement, with the 50-day EMA (2.3764 USD) crossing below the 200-day EMA (2.5245 USD) forming a death cross, theoretically limiting the rebound space. However, the effectiveness of this traditional technical indicator is being challenged in the new era of ETFs. For example, in October, XRP rose 22% against the trend while in a death cross state, indicating that fundamental catalysts may surpass pure technical signals. Investors need to combine on-chain data for a comprehensive judgment, especially the changes in whale address holdings and exchange flow indicators.

The derivatives market is sending mixed signals. On one hand, the perpetual contract funding rate remains positive, indicating that leveraged long positions are still dominant; on the other hand, the open interest of put options is densely distributed in the $2.3-$2.5 range, reflecting some investors' doubts about the height of a rebound. It is recommended to adopt a “breakout confirmation” strategy: if the price breaks out with volume above $2.2872 (the high on November 24), one can position for a long target of $2.35; if it effectively breaks below $2.0, one should be cautious of a deeper pullback to the $1.82 area.

Ripple Ecosystem Evolution: Leap from Cross-Border Payments to Financial Infrastructure

Ripple, the technology supporter behind XRP, is undergoing a transformation from a cross-border payment service provider to a comprehensive financial infrastructure. As of now, the RippleNet network has covered over 70 countries and established partnerships with international financial institutions such as Spain's Santander Bank and Thailand's Siam Commercial Bank. In the third quarter of 2024, the total amount of cross-border payments processed through RippleNet reached $18 billion, marking a 35% year-on-year growth, and this practical use case provides continuous support for XRP liquidity.

In terms of regulatory compliance, Ripple received principal approval for a major payment institution license from the Monetary Authority of Singapore in 2023 and submitted a charter bank application to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency in the United States this year. If the bank license is approved, Ripple will be able to directly access the Fed's payment system, greatly enhancing the application space for XRP in dollar settlement scenarios. Meanwhile, the company continues to communicate with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission regarding the legal status of XRP, and a recent court ruling has clarified that XRP does not constitute a security issuance in programmed sales.

The activity level of the developer ecosystem is also worth paying attention to. According to data from the RippleX platform, the number of decentralized applications based on the XRP Ledger has exceeded 500, covering multiple fields including DeFi, NFTs, and enterprise solutions. Especially in the CBDC field, Ripple is collaborating with countries such as Palau and Montenegro to pilot national digital currency schemes. Although these ecological advancements do not directly reflect in short-term prices, they lay a solid foundation for the long-term value of XRP.

Overview of the Crypto ETF Market: From Bitcoin Dominance to a Multi-Asset Era

Since Canada was the first to launch a Bitcoin ETF in 2021, the crypto ETF market is experiencing structural expansion. As of the third quarter of 2023, the global crypto ETF assets under management have reached 82 billion USD, with the US market accounting for 68%. The product types have expanded from a single Bitcoin Spot ETF to include Ethereum ETFs, leveraged ETFs, and now XRP ETFs, demonstrating the increasing acceptance of crypto assets by traditional finance.

The unique value of the XRP ETF lies in its filling the product gap for payment-type tokens. Unlike Bitcoin's store of value attributes and Ethereum's smart contract platform attributes, XRP mainly serves the cross-border settlement needs of financial institutions, which makes its price drivers more diverse. From the investor structure of the first batch of XRP ETFs, in addition to traditional hedge funds, some Treasury Management departments of multinational companies have also started to tentatively allocate, and this influx of institutional funds may change the original price volatility pattern of XRP.

The changing regulatory environment has also propelled the diversification trend of ETFs. After the approval of the Bitcoin Spot ETF by the SEC, the standards for subsequent crypto ETF approvals have gradually become clearer, focusing on the liquidity of the underlying assets and the risk of manipulation. XRP, with a daily trading volume stable in the range of 1.5 to 2 billion dollars and having been listed on multiple mainstream CEXs for many years, is more likely to meet regulatory requirements compared to emerging tokens. If mainstream tokens like Cardano (ADA) and Solana (SOL) are successively approved for ETFs in the future, it will further improve the traditional financial gateway for crypto assets.

Market Outlook: Direction Selection Amidst Multiple Catalysts

In the coming week, XRP will face a triple test from technical, funding, and policy perspectives. Technically, the $2.35 resistance level and the $2.20 support level form a converging triangle pattern, and the breakout direction will determine the medium-term trend. From the funding side, the daily net inflow data for the ETF needs to consistently exceed $100 million to effectively offset the negative impact of Bitcoin ETF outflows. On the policy front, the progress of the U.S. Congress's market structure bill and the approval results of Ripple's banking license could both become the catalysts for a market turning point.

From a seasonal analysis, the end of the year is usually an active period for cryptocurrencies. Combined with the potential policy shift of the Fed, December may become a window for XRP to regain strength. If the price can stabilize above $2.35, subsequent targets could be seen in the $2.5-$2.8 range; if it breaks below the key support of $2.0, caution is needed for the chain reaction triggered by deteriorating market sentiment. It is recommended that investors adopt a phased accumulation strategy, focusing on the ETF flow data released every Wednesday and speeches from Fed officials.

Ultimately, the revaluation of XRP's value is inseparable from the development of the entire cryptocurrency market. As institutional participation increases and regulatory frameworks improve, cryptocurrencies are transitioning from fringe assets to mainstream allocation categories. In this process, tokens with practical use cases and compliance progress will gain a premium, and XRP's first-mover advantage in the cross-border payment sector may make it an important beneficiary of this transformation. Market participants should maintain strategic patience and seize structural opportunities amidst volatility.