XRP News: Bearish trend intensifies? Key ETF launches before falling below the 2.2 USD support level.

XRP continued its downward trend for seven consecutive trading days on November 17, 2025, with the price falling below the key support level of $2.2, setting the longest losing streak since 2023. This decline coincides with the Franklin XRP ETF (EZRP) set to launch on November 18, but the continued net outflow of $1.11 billion from Bitcoin Spot ETFs has heightened market concerns.

On-chain data shows that the average loss of active XRP wallets over the past 30 days has reached 10.2%, with technical indicators confirming bearish momentum as the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages form a death cross. Analysts point out that the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has dropped to 44%, and the uncertainty in U.S. economic data is prompting investors to turn to safe-haven assets.

Overall Market Risk Aversion and XRP's Unique Performance

The cryptocurrency market experienced a comprehensive sell-off in the second week of November, with Bitcoin falling to $91,113, a 27.8% retracement from its 2025 peak, wiping out all gains made this year. In contrast, XRP, despite experiencing seven consecutive declines, still maintains a positive return of 4.11% for the year, mainly due to market expectations for institutional demand and support from progress in crypto-friendly legislation.

Santiment data shows that the current market sentiment has entered the extreme fear zone, with the average investment return of active wallets over the past 30 days being negative: Bitcoin -11.5%, Ethereum -15.4%, XRP -10.2%. This widespread loss state, according to historical data, often indicates that the market may be close to a short-term bottom, but a fundamental catalyst is needed to trigger a reversal.

Concerns of Institutional Demand Before the Launch of Franklin XRP ETF

Franklin Templeton, as an industry giant with an asset management scale of 44.7 billion dollars, should have seen its XRP ETF listing as a significant positive. However, the market reaction has been unusually tepid. This contrast stems from the outflow of funds from Bitcoin Spot ETFs — in the week ending November 14, the net outflow from the U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETF market was 1.11 billion dollars, and early data on November 17 again showed a net outflow.

Compared to the early mover Canary Capital (which manages only $84.82 million), Franklin's theoretical influence is greater, but the current macro environment is weakening institutional allocation willingness. Notably, crypto-supporting lawyer Bill Morgan pointed out that the XRP price has fallen back to June 2025 levels, when the SEC lawsuit had not yet concluded, the Spot ETF had not been approved, and the Evernorth collaboration had not been announced, implying that the current valuation fails to reflect these substantial developments.

XRP key technical levels and catalyst matrix

• Key support level: $2.0 (psychological barrier), $1.9 (trend line support)
• EMA Resistance: 50-day EMA $2.48, 200-day EMA $2.56
• Main Resistance Areas: $2.35, $2.5, $2.62, $2.8, $3.0, $3.66
• Policy Catalysts: Federal Reserve speeches, U.S. economic data, progress on market structure legislation
• Institutional Catalyst: XRP ETF capital flow, blue-chip company treasury allocation, Ripple bank license

Technical Analysis of XRP and Multi-Time Frame Outlook

The daily chart shows that XRP has formed a series of lower highs and lower lows, which is a typical bearish structure. On November 17, the price fell 2.37% to $2.1641, with trading volume increasing by 18% compared to the monthly average, confirming the downward momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 35, not yet entering the oversold area, indicating that there is still room for downside.

From a volatility perspective, the 30-day historical volatility of XRP is 85%, higher than Bitcoin's 62%. This high volatility can amplify falls in a negative market environment. If the 2.0 USD support level is breached, the next key support area will look towards 1.8-1.85 USD, which is a dense trading zone for the fourth quarter of 2024.

Evaluation of the Impact of Policy Environment and Legislative Progress

The crypto market is currently highly sensitive to Federal Reserve policies. Federal funds futures show that the probability of a rate cut in December has dropped from 68% at the beginning of the month to 44%. This shift in expectations has led to a rebound in the dollar index to 105.8, putting pressure on risk assets. In terms of legislation, when the market structure bill was passed by the House of Representatives on July 17, XRP surged 14.69% in a single day, significantly outperforming Bitcoin's increase of 0.39%.

The bill is currently under review in the Senate, and if progress can be made before the end of November, it may become a key factor in reversing sentiment. In addition, the progress of Ripple's application for a U.S. chartered banking license is also attracting attention; if approved, it will open traditional financial channels for XRP.

XRP Trading Strategies and Risk Hedging Recommendations

In the current market environment, investors may consider various strategies. For spot holders, it is recommended to set a stop-loss order around $2.0; if it falls below that, reduce the position by 50%. Regarding options strategies, buying put options expiring in December with a strike price of $2.0 costs about 6% of the contract value, providing downside protection.

More aggressive investors can construct a spread strategy: sell a $2.3 call option and buy a $2.0 put option. This collar strategy can reduce holding costs but limits upside potential. For long-term investors, below $2.0 is considered an accumulation zone. Historical data shows that holders of XRP in the $1.8-$2.0 range have a median 5-year return of 380%.

When market sentiment significantly diverges from the fundamentals, it often presents the best window for value discovery. The unusual fall of XRP before the ETF listing reflects the pressure of the macro environment and exposes the market's excessive reliance on a single catalyst. Those investors who can see through short-term fluctuations and focus on ecological development may capture excess returns driven by both policy and technology.