XRP 5-Year Price Prediction: Standard Chartered Bank Sets a Target of $12.25, ETF and Institutional Adoption Become Key

Ripple (XRP) has accumulated a 725% increase over the past three years, with most of the gains concentrated in the 12 months following President Trump's election and the U.S. SEC's termination of the lawsuit against Ripple. As Ripple actively promotes cross-border payment solutions, and with the Spot XRP ETF expected to be approved in 2025, the market is filled with imagination regarding the price movement over the next five years. Standard Chartered Bank has set a target price of $12.25 for 2029, implying an increase of over 315% from the current price of $2.95.

Standard Chartered's optimistic forecast

Geoff Kendrick, the head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, estimates that as XRP plays a more important role in the global financial system and with ETFs attracting more capital inflows, the price of XRP is expected to reach $12.25 by 2029, equivalent to an annualized return of about 43%.

This figure is far higher than the average growth rate of the cryptocurrency market and clearly exceeds the long-term return rate of the global stock market.

Conservative Reality Calculation

Some analysts believe that Kendrick's target is overly aggressive. Based on a more conservative annualized return of 20%, XRP's price in 5 years (by the end of 2030) is projected to be around $7.35, with an increase of approximately 150%.

The main driving forces include:

1. Spot XRP ETF approval: Expected to lower investment thresholds and attract retail and institutional funds.

2. Increase in cross-border payment adoption: If the Ripple ODL (On-Demand Liquidity) service expands its application, it will increase the demand for XRP.

Ripple's ambition for cross-border payments

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse predicted that within five years, XRP will account for 14% of the current cross-border transaction volume of SWIFT.

The ODL service of Ripple Payments uses XRP as a bridge currency, allowing international transfers to be completed in seconds at a cost far lower than traditional wire transfers. However, most partner banks do not currently use ODL directly, primarily due to the high volatility of XRP prices, which still poses risks for some financial institutions.

Stablecoins and Competitive Pressure

Ripple's Ripple USD (RLUSD) aims to reduce volatility and enhance the stability of cross-border payments, but its market acceptance still lags behind mainstream stablecoins like USDC and USDT. If RLUSD cannot expand rapidly, the application scenarios of XRP as a bridge currency may be limited.

Potential Impact of ETF Approval

The U.S. SEC has received at least 8 Spot XRP ETF applications, with most approval deadlines falling in October 2025. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas estimates the approval probability to be as high as 95%.

Referring to the experience of Bitcoin ETF, since its approval, the BTC return rate has reached 140%, and the iShares Bitcoin Trust has become one of the fastest-growing ETFs in terms of capital inflow in history. Although the XRP ETF may not replicate the same level of enthusiasm, its potential impact on price movement cannot be ignored.

Investment Risks and Volatility

The historical volatility of XRP is extremely high, having dropped more than 35% from its peak three times in the past three years. For investors who cannot bear significant fluctuations, overly concentrated holdings of XRP may bring psychological and financial pressure.

Conclusion

Combining optimistic and conservative forecasts, the reasonable price range for XRP over the next five years falls between $7.35 and $12.25. The approval of Spot ETF and the actual adoption rate of cross-border payments will be two key factors determining whether XRP can reach its high target. For long-term investors, this is a high-risk, high-potential game—before entering, please confirm whether you can withstand the volatility and uncertainty of this journey.