On the eve of a market storm: Economic data and Fed decisions intersect, where will the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum head next?

Experts say that the generally quiet trading period for Bitcoin and the crypto market on Monday may not last long. With a series of key U.S. economic data being released and heightened attention from seasoned traders, the market is undergoing another round of "temperature checks." Investors and analysts are focusing on the upcoming reports this week on non-farm payroll revisions, the Producer Price Index, and the Consumer Price Index, as these data will directly impact the Fed's future interest rate path.

Upcoming Economic Test

This week, the U.S. economy will face a series of important data releases, which may trigger volatility in the crypto market.

• Non-farm payroll revision (Tuesday): The article points out that the U.S. labor market has shown a continued downward trend in July and August, and the non-farm payroll revision to be released on Tuesday is expected to show a decline of -450,000 to -950,000.
• Producer Price Index (Wednesday): This report will provide insights into business costs and wholesale inflation.
• Consumer Price Index (Thursday): This is the most closely watched inflation indicator. If the reading is positive, it may influence the Fed's further rate cut decisions after September. Conversely, a surge in inflation could force traders to reassess their positions in risk assets, including encryption.

Amberdata's Derivatives Director Greg Magadini stated that inflation is the "unknown variable in the interest rate path equation." He explained that while President Donald Trump has performed well in controlling energy prices, this "may not be enough to curb inflation," and without a "credible Fed mission," inflation expectations could lead to market turmoil.

VIX Futures and the Fed's Decision "Powder Keg"

In addition to economic data, September 17 will be a key date for the market facing additional uncertainty. On this day, futures linked to Wall Street's "fear index" VIX will expire, and the Fed will also announce its Intrerest Rate decision on the same day.

Expert Sean Dawson referred to this situation as "a potential volatility powder keg," noting that the expiration of VIX futures will clear volatility hedges, while the Fed's decisions will trigger a significant directional shock. This has led some to believe that the September VIX futures have priced in the risks, while October may be "hard to watch."

Bitcoin vs. Ethereum: Subtle Differences in Market Sentiment

During market lulls, the perpetual contract data of Bitcoin and Ethereum reveals subtle differences in investor sentiment:

Bitcoin: According to data from Coinalyze, the open interest in Bitcoin increased by approximately 450 million USD during the same period, reaching 30.41 billion USD, but there was no clear tendency between buyers and sellers.

Ethereum: The perpetual contract data for Ethereum shows a slightly bullish outlook. This is due to the continued upward trend in its cumulative spot trading volume data, as well as an overnight increase of 438 million USD in open interest, reaching 24.3 billion USD.

Conclusion

Overall, the crypto market is on the brink of a potential storm. This week, the release of key economic data in the U.S., along with the overlap of the Fed's interest rate decision on September 17 and the expiration date of VIX futures, has created a rare situation that could trigger significant volatility. Although market sentiment is unclear in the short term, analysts generally believe that the convergence of these macroeconomic events will provide clear signals for the next major directional trend of crypto assets. For investors, this represents both risk and opportunity.