Ethereum vs Bitcoin: Historic "golden cross" signal flashes, potentially recreating a 250% rise | ETH price prediction

The native Ethereum token ETH's performance compared to Bitcoin (BTC) is flashing a historic signal that previously appeared before one of its strongest pumps. On the ETH/BTC weekly chart, the 20-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is about to cross above the 50-week EMA, forming a "golden cross." This pattern appeared at the beginning of 2020, after which ETH outperformed BTC by approximately 250% within the year. At the same time, the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA), institutional staking, and the application of spot ETFs, along with the accelerated accumulation of on-chain whales, provide a solid foundation for this potential rise.

ETH/BTC golden cross, reappearing the 250% rise of 2020

(Source: TradingView)

On the weekly chart of ETH/BTC, the 20-week EMA is approaching the 50-week EMA, about to form a bullish signal known as a "golden cross." This pattern last appeared in early 2020, after which ETH surged strongly over the following 12 months, outperforming BTC by about 250%.

Similar to last time, this pattern also occurs after ETH's strong rebound from its multi-year accumulation range (approximately 0.020–0.025 BTC), which once again proves the role of this range as a long-term support level. However, ETH/BTC still faces immediate resistance and is currently testing the 200-week EMA (approximately 0.045 BTC), a level that has triggered bearish pullbacks both in 2021 and in the current trend.

In previous cycles, ETH once failed to break through this resistance level, but then successfully broke upward, accelerating to the 0.08–0.09 BTC range. A similar path may be unfolding, although the weekly chart's RSI (Relative Strength Index) is in overbought territory, indicating there may be a pullback before any breakout attempts. Historical data shows that golden crosses accompanied by overbought conditions often lead to short-term market volatility, but as long as ETH can hold above the mid-term moving average, its broader trend remains optimistic.

The Road to 0.087 BTC for Ethereum

If ETH/BTC can decisively break through and hold above the 200-week EMA, this currency pair may first target 0.06 BTC as a medium-term goal, similar to the first wave of the 2020-21 bull market. From there, the ultimate upside target may be around 0.087 BTC, which is the peak of the previous cycle and a key resistance level to watch in the coming months.

Macroeconomic background factors may provide key momentum, just like in 2020. The previous ETH/BTC pump benefited from the booming DeFi token market and loose monetary policies. Today, the growth momentum for Ethereum stems from its continually expanding ecosystem, including real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, institutional staking, the adoption of Spot ETFs, and Ethereum treasury bonds, among others. These factors may collectively lay the groundwork for Ethereum's dominance once again, especially as funds continue to rotate from Bitcoin into the broader crypto economy.

Whales are supporting this wave of rise.

On-chain data further strengthens this bullish argument. According to Glassnode data, the number of Ethereum whale wallets holding more than 10,000 ETH has sharply increased in recent months. The 30-day net change of these addresses turned positive by mid-2025 and accelerated thereafter, marking one of the strongest accumulation phases since the 2020-21 bull market.

Meanwhile, the price of ETH is climbing towards $5,000, indicating that large investors are positioning themselves for further pumps. If this accumulation trend continues, it will provide Ethereum with the necessary liquidity and confidence to maintain the breakout of 0.087 BTC, echoing the previous cycle's 250% "familiar" rise.

Conclusion

Comprehensive technical analysis and on-chain data indicate that Ethereum is at a critical turning point. The historic "golden cross" signal coincides with the aggressive accumulation by whales, providing strong arguments for the potential rise of ETH/BTC. Although there may be resistance from the 200-week EMA in the short term, and the RSI shows overbought conditions, this seems more like a buildup for an upcoming breakout. If macro drivers, especially the continued growth of real-world asset tokenization and institutional interest, can inject new vitality into Ethereum, then ETH is likely to demonstrate its strong performance surpassing BTC in the next cycle, recreating its historic moments of glory.