Gold broke through $3500 to reach a historic high, silver followed with a big pump, and Bitcoin firmly held at $110,000 waiting for US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) guidance.
Gold prices have strongly broken through the key resistance level of 3500 dollars, reaching a historic high of 3540 dollars, ending a four-month consolidation pattern. Silver has also performed strongly, successfully standing above 35 dollars and challenging the 39.40 resistance. Factors driving the rise of precious metals include a weakening dollar, expectations of Fed interest rate cuts, and geopolitical uncertainty. Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market shows resilience, with Bitcoin slightly rising to 110,735 dollars, although technical indicators suggest a weakening momentum in the short-term trend. Market focus shifts to the U.S. non-farm payroll report this Friday, the results of which could determine the next direction for precious metals and Crypto Assets.
Gold Fundamentals: Multiple Positive Factors Drive Prices to New Highs
The explosive rise in gold is driven by a series of fundamental supports: the continuous weakening of the dollar, concerns about the independence of the Fed, escalating geopolitical tensions, and safe-haven demand due to uncertainty in U.S. trade policy. Additionally, while the ISM Manufacturing PMI recorded 48.7, below expectations and still in the contraction range, the rebound in the new orders index suggests that demand may be reaching a bottom and recovering. Following the data release, the dollar weakened slightly, further solidifying support for gold prices.
Despite the surge in yields of UK gilt bonds impacting the global bond market, pushing up US bond yields and temporarily supporting the dollar, the market still prices the probability of a Fed rate cut in September at as high as 91%, with rate cut expectations becoming the core catalyst for gold. If Friday's non-farm data is weak, gold prices may further target the $3600 level.
Gold Technical Analysis: Daily and 4-hour charts show strong breakout
On the daily chart, spot gold rapidly rose after breaking through the key resistance level of 3500 USD, ending a four-month consolidation period, indicating the possibility of further rise toward the 3700–3800 USD range in the coming days. The 4-hour chart shows that after breaking through 3500, gold prices formed a solid bullish structure. Although short-term indicators indicate overbought conditions and potential technical corrections, it is expected that any corrections will occur after prices continue to surge. The 3500 USD level has now transformed into important support, with short-term targets looking toward 3600 USD.
Silver Technical Analysis: Breakthrough $35, Bullish Pattern is Clear
The silver daily chart shows a strong bullish momentum, forming an inverted head and shoulders pattern and other bullish structures. After actively consolidating between 4 and 6 months, the price successfully broke through the $35 level and further conquered the $39.40 resistance, indicating that silver has entered a new upward cycle, with a short-term target pointing to the $42–43 area. The 4-hour chart also shows that the silver price stands above $39.40, with the inverted head and shoulders pattern formed in June and August continuing the bullish signal.
US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Daily Bear Flag Consolidation, 4-Hour Temporarily Supported
The daily USD index is currently below 100.50, forming a bearish flag pattern. Although it rebounded from the support level on Tuesday, the overall trend remains bearish. The 4-hour chart shows the USD index consolidating above the supports at 96.50 and 97.20, with short-term resistance levels at 98.60 and 99.20. If it breaks above 99.20, it may further test 100.50, but as long as the index does not stabilize above 100.50, the larger bearish structure remains unchanged.
Crypto Assets market rises against the trend, showing divergence from traditional markets
The total market capitalization of Crypto Assets rebounded by 1.2% to $3.9 trillion, with Bitcoin, Solana, and XRP leading the rise, up nearly 2%, showing signs of decoupling from traditional assets. Despite the S&P 500 index falling by 1.39% to 6,370 points and increased volatility in Treasury yields, the crypto market still exhibits resilience.
Bitcoin Price Trend: Short-term Neutral to Weak, Long-term Moving Averages Still Bullish Arrangement
(Source: TradingView)
Bitcoin is currently up 1.36% to 110,735 USD, with an intraday high of 111,775 USD. The RSI is in the neutral and weak zone at 44, indicating a lack of strong directional momentum in the market; the ADX reading is 20, suggesting that the current trend strength is weak, and the market may be in the stage of brewing a new round of market activity. It is worth noting that the 50-day EMA is still above the 200-day EMA, forming a "golden cross," and the mid-term bullish structure remains intact, but the narrowing distance between the two lines indicates signs of weakening upward momentum.
The prediction market platform Myriad Markets data shows that traders believe the probability of Bitcoin dropping to 105,000 dollars is 66%, up from 44% two weeks ago, reflecting a cautious short-term market sentiment.
Ethereum slightly dipped 0.25% to $4,303.99, but the intra-day volatility was significant, with a high of $4,416.45. The RSI is at the neutral level of 50, indicating a temporary balance between bullish and bearish forces; the ADX has fallen from previous highs to 26, slightly above the trend strength dividing line, suggesting that while the overall trend remains bullish, momentum has slowed down. Similar to Bitcoin, its 50-day EMA is still above the 200-day EMA, supporting the bullish outlook for the medium to long term.
According to Myriad Markets, the probability of Ethereum rising to $5,000 is 60%, but it has decreased by 13% in a week, reflecting a weakening of market confidence in ETH's short-term breakout.
Key level:
Strong support: 4,000 USD
Recent resistance: 4,416 USD
Strong resistance: 4,500 USD
Conclusion: Non-farm data will become the new catalyst for the market
Although precious metals and Crypto Assets have shown strong performance recently, the overall market is still in a state of waiting for clear macro signals. If Friday's non-farm payroll report shows weak performance, it may strengthen expectations for Fed rate cuts, pushing gold, silver, and cryptocurrencies further upward; if the data is stronger than expected, it may delay the pace of easing, leading to short-term pullbacks. Although September is traditionally a month of weak performance for risk assets, institutional funds continue to allocate to Crypto Assets and market risk aversion demand remains, which may provide downward protection for the market, and the medium to long-term bullish logic remains unchanged.
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Gold broke through $3500 to reach a historic high, silver followed with a big pump, and Bitcoin firmly held at $110,000 waiting for US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) guidance.
Gold prices have strongly broken through the key resistance level of 3500 dollars, reaching a historic high of 3540 dollars, ending a four-month consolidation pattern. Silver has also performed strongly, successfully standing above 35 dollars and challenging the 39.40 resistance. Factors driving the rise of precious metals include a weakening dollar, expectations of Fed interest rate cuts, and geopolitical uncertainty. Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market shows resilience, with Bitcoin slightly rising to 110,735 dollars, although technical indicators suggest a weakening momentum in the short-term trend. Market focus shifts to the U.S. non-farm payroll report this Friday, the results of which could determine the next direction for precious metals and Crypto Assets.
Gold Fundamentals: Multiple Positive Factors Drive Prices to New Highs
The explosive rise in gold is driven by a series of fundamental supports: the continuous weakening of the dollar, concerns about the independence of the Fed, escalating geopolitical tensions, and safe-haven demand due to uncertainty in U.S. trade policy. Additionally, while the ISM Manufacturing PMI recorded 48.7, below expectations and still in the contraction range, the rebound in the new orders index suggests that demand may be reaching a bottom and recovering. Following the data release, the dollar weakened slightly, further solidifying support for gold prices.
Despite the surge in yields of UK gilt bonds impacting the global bond market, pushing up US bond yields and temporarily supporting the dollar, the market still prices the probability of a Fed rate cut in September at as high as 91%, with rate cut expectations becoming the core catalyst for gold. If Friday's non-farm data is weak, gold prices may further target the $3600 level.
Gold Technical Analysis: Daily and 4-hour charts show strong breakout
On the daily chart, spot gold rapidly rose after breaking through the key resistance level of 3500 USD, ending a four-month consolidation period, indicating the possibility of further rise toward the 3700–3800 USD range in the coming days. The 4-hour chart shows that after breaking through 3500, gold prices formed a solid bullish structure. Although short-term indicators indicate overbought conditions and potential technical corrections, it is expected that any corrections will occur after prices continue to surge. The 3500 USD level has now transformed into important support, with short-term targets looking toward 3600 USD.
Silver Technical Analysis: Breakthrough $35, Bullish Pattern is Clear
The silver daily chart shows a strong bullish momentum, forming an inverted head and shoulders pattern and other bullish structures. After actively consolidating between 4 and 6 months, the price successfully broke through the $35 level and further conquered the $39.40 resistance, indicating that silver has entered a new upward cycle, with a short-term target pointing to the $42–43 area. The 4-hour chart also shows that the silver price stands above $39.40, with the inverted head and shoulders pattern formed in June and August continuing the bullish signal.
US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Daily Bear Flag Consolidation, 4-Hour Temporarily Supported
The daily USD index is currently below 100.50, forming a bearish flag pattern. Although it rebounded from the support level on Tuesday, the overall trend remains bearish. The 4-hour chart shows the USD index consolidating above the supports at 96.50 and 97.20, with short-term resistance levels at 98.60 and 99.20. If it breaks above 99.20, it may further test 100.50, but as long as the index does not stabilize above 100.50, the larger bearish structure remains unchanged.
Crypto Assets market rises against the trend, showing divergence from traditional markets
The total market capitalization of Crypto Assets rebounded by 1.2% to $3.9 trillion, with Bitcoin, Solana, and XRP leading the rise, up nearly 2%, showing signs of decoupling from traditional assets. Despite the S&P 500 index falling by 1.39% to 6,370 points and increased volatility in Treasury yields, the crypto market still exhibits resilience.
Bitcoin Price Trend: Short-term Neutral to Weak, Long-term Moving Averages Still Bullish Arrangement
(Source: TradingView)
Bitcoin is currently up 1.36% to 110,735 USD, with an intraday high of 111,775 USD. The RSI is in the neutral and weak zone at 44, indicating a lack of strong directional momentum in the market; the ADX reading is 20, suggesting that the current trend strength is weak, and the market may be in the stage of brewing a new round of market activity. It is worth noting that the 50-day EMA is still above the 200-day EMA, forming a "golden cross," and the mid-term bullish structure remains intact, but the narrowing distance between the two lines indicates signs of weakening upward momentum.
The prediction market platform Myriad Markets data shows that traders believe the probability of Bitcoin dropping to 105,000 dollars is 66%, up from 44% two weeks ago, reflecting a cautious short-term market sentiment.
Key level:
Ethereum Trend Analysis: Intraday Volatility Intensifies, Trend Strength Remains
Ethereum slightly dipped 0.25% to $4,303.99, but the intra-day volatility was significant, with a high of $4,416.45. The RSI is at the neutral level of 50, indicating a temporary balance between bullish and bearish forces; the ADX has fallen from previous highs to 26, slightly above the trend strength dividing line, suggesting that while the overall trend remains bullish, momentum has slowed down. Similar to Bitcoin, its 50-day EMA is still above the 200-day EMA, supporting the bullish outlook for the medium to long term.
According to Myriad Markets, the probability of Ethereum rising to $5,000 is 60%, but it has decreased by 13% in a week, reflecting a weakening of market confidence in ETH's short-term breakout.
Key level:
Conclusion: Non-farm data will become the new catalyst for the market
Although precious metals and Crypto Assets have shown strong performance recently, the overall market is still in a state of waiting for clear macro signals. If Friday's non-farm payroll report shows weak performance, it may strengthen expectations for Fed rate cuts, pushing gold, silver, and cryptocurrencies further upward; if the data is stronger than expected, it may delay the pace of easing, leading to short-term pullbacks. Although September is traditionally a month of weak performance for risk assets, institutional funds continue to allocate to Crypto Assets and market risk aversion demand remains, which may provide downward protection for the market, and the medium to long-term bullish logic remains unchanged.