Cardano has accumulated long enough – Are the bulls preparing for a historical breakout?

Cardano (ADA) is undergoing a period of strong volatility as macroeconomic factors and legal news simultaneously put pressure on prices. The latest decision by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to postpone the approval of Grayscale's spot Cardano ETF has become the focus of investor attention. This move not only extends the market's wait but also increases cautious sentiment, causing ADA to continue testing the key support zone – an area that has repeatedly served as a "lifeline" during recent corrections.

However, contrary to the uneasy atmosphere, some technical analysts believe that the medium and long-term picture of Cardano still holds optimistic signals. According to them, the rebound from the bottom zone within the current trading range could be a preparation for a new growth breakout, similar to how ADA has moved in previous cycles.

ADA drops as spot ETF is delayed

During the trading session on Tuesday, ADA recorded a recovery attempt after a strong correction at the beginning of the week, but the rebound remains quite fragile. This cryptocurrency has maintained a range of 0.84 – 0.96 USD since breaking out in early August. Notably, ADA once reached a 5-month high of 1.02 USD on August 14 before facing correction pressure.

In recent pullback phases, the 0.85 USD zone has repeatedly served as a key support, helping ADA hold its price structure. At the same time, buyers have also been striving to reclaim the 0.9 USD mark – which is a short-term resistance zone – and have temporarily maintained this level throughout the past weekend. However, the market-wide plunge at the beginning of the week, when Bitcoin fell to its lowest level in over a month, dragged ADA down below 0.84 USD, before it bounced back thanks to bottom-fishing buying pressure.

This development comes at a time when the market is receiving important news: the SEC has officially postponed the deadline for a decision on Grayscale's spot Cardano ETF by an additional 60 days, moving the final deadline to October 26, 2025.

In the announcement released on Monday, the SEC stated:

"The Commission is extending the deadline for approving or rejecting the proposed regulatory change by 60 days. This is to ensure that the Commission has enough time to thoroughly review the related issues."

Notably, Cardano is not the only case affected. Previously, the SEC also delayed a series of other cryptocurrency ETF applications:

• Solana spot ETF ( includes products from Grayscale) postponed until 16/10/2025.
• The XRP and PENGU spot ETFs have both been extended until the end of October.

This series of moves once again shows that U.S. regulators remain cautious, especially regarding ETF products linked to altcoins – which are considered to have a higher level of risk and volatility compared to Bitcoin or Ethereum.

The delay not only adds short-term psychological pressure on ADA, but also reflects the reality that institutional capital has yet to access Cardano through mainstream ETF channels. However, on the flip side, some experts argue that the SEC's failure to reject but only delay is still a "positive neutral" signal, opening up the possibility that ADA could be approved in the future when the regulatory framework becomes clearer.

Is a breakout about to happen?

Although the market still has many uncertain factors, some analysts believe that the current volatility of ADA could be a preparation for a new price increase, repeating the familiar pattern in previous cycles.

Crypto analyst Bullet has pointed out the striking similarities between the current cycle and the period of 2017 – 2021:

• After the strong explosion in the 2017 – 2018 period, ADA entered a prolonged accumulation process with a narrow range, forming a double bottom pattern during the 2019 – 2020 period.
• By the end of 2020, Cardano had broken through the accumulation zone, simultaneously turning the previous resistance level into a new support zone. From here, the price of ADA began a steep upward cycle, quickly reaching a historical peak of 3.09 USD within just a few months thereafter.

According to him, the current price behavior shows a notable similarity:

• From the end of 2023 to the beginning of 2024, ADA has completed a multi-year accumulation phase, as evidenced by tight fluctuations and low trading volume.
• In Q4/2024, this cryptocurrency has broken out of the range, bouncing off the upper boundary of the accumulation zone and is currently in a "resting" phase – often seen as a re-accumulation step before the market chooses a new direction.

Crypto Bullet emphasizes:

"A final journey is approaching. If history repeats itself, the next target for ADA could be in the range of 1.7 – 2.1 USD."

This implies that ADA is in a "pre-explosive threshold" state, where the price action continues to fluctuate above key support zones, while waiting for confirmation signals from the broader market.

From a technical perspective, this scenario will only be reinforced if ADA holds the zone of 0.84 – 0.85 USD as a foundation, while decisively breaking through the resistance level of 0.9 – 1 USD to establish a new upward trend.

Bitcoin remains the determining factor

While many analysts find positive signals from the price structure of Cardano, there remains an undeniable fact: Bitcoin is the determining factor for the overall trend of the crypto market.

Market analyst Sebastian emphasizes that the performance of ADA currently depends largely on the price action of Bitcoin. Although Cardano has shown efforts to recover, if the largest cryptocurrency in the market continues to weaken, the potential breakout of ADA will be limited.

He pointed out that since the beginning of August, ADA has been moving in a bullish flag pattern ( – a pattern that often appears in the accumulation phase after a breakout, before the price continues to rise. In this structure:

• The upper boundary of the model is around the 0.9 USD zone, acting as a "bottleneck" for ADA to establish an upward trend.
• If it cannot recover and maintain above 0.9 USD, ADA will face the risk of retreating deeper into the 0.8 USD zone, coinciding with the lower support trend line.
• Conversely, a convincing breakout from the pattern will open up a short-term target around 1.2 USD, marking an important transition in the current cycle.

At the time of writing, ADA is trading at $0.86, up 3% in the last 24 hours. This recovery indicates that demand is still present, but not strong enough to confirm a new upward trend.

It is noteworthy that, even if the price structure of ADA resembles the historical scenario analyzed by Crypto Bullet – with a long-term target of 1.7 – 2.1 USD – for this scenario to occur, Bitcoin needs to stabilize or reverse positively. A deeper correction of BTC will almost certainly drag ADA along with the entire altcoin market down to a lower support zone.

In other words, ADA is currently at a double decision threshold: it needs to confirm the breakout of its own technical pattern while also relying on the leading strength of Bitcoin. If BTC remains stable, the likelihood of Cardano entering a new growth cycle will become clearer; conversely, the risk of a pullback will continue to loom.

Lilly