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Analyst: This U.S. election will not change the long-term macro market outlook.
Michael Brown, an analyst at Pepperstone, said that Trump's victory could send the market to reflation, expected tax cuts and potential tariff problems. Initial market reactions are likely to include a stronger dollar as well as a fall in Treasuries. Expectations of easing the regulatory burden are likely to boost equities, especially energy and defense stocks. He said Harris's victory could lead to a weaker dollar as the trade-sensitive forex market would be "relieved" by the lifting of Trump-related hedging operations. Expectations of a more expansionary fiscal policy could weigh on Treasuries, while fears of tighter regulation could weigh on equities. However, declines are likely to be quickly picked up by dips, and clean energy and technology stocks are likely to perform better. Much depends on the composition of Congress. For those wondering if this election will change the long-term macro or market outlook, Brown's answer is "absolutely not." (Golden Ten)