Bitcoin is expected to reach 266,000 USD in the long term! JPMorgan analyzes recent declines and maintains the gold depreciation trading theory

JPMorgan is optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term potential, with a target price of up to $266,000. The report notes that current volatility ratios are at an all-time low, and although falling below $87,000 has put pressure on production costs, there is still room for upside after negative sentiment reverses.

JPMorgan: Bitcoin Faces Short-Term Slump, Long-Term Outlook at $266,000

Although the cryptocurrency market has recently faced selling pressure and low investor sentiment, JPMorgan’s analyst team still indicates in their latest report that Bitcoin could reach $266,000 in the long run.

Led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, JPMorgan’s analysis team believes that since October 2025, gold has outperformed Bitcoin, and with gold volatility rising sharply, Bitcoin’s attractiveness has actually increased after volatility adjustments.

Data from the report shows that the current volatility ratio between Bitcoin and gold has fallen to about 1.5 times, hitting a record low. Analysts estimate that if Bitcoin’s market cap is to match the total amount of private gold investments excluding central bank holdings (about $8 trillion), the price would need to rise to $266,000.

Of course, reaching a target price of $266,000 this year would be considered unrealistic, but it highlights the long-term upside potential when negative sentiment reverses and Bitcoin is once again viewed as a disaster hedge alongside gold.

JPMorgan’s latest report continues their stance from November 2025, when the bank predicted Bitcoin had upside potential over the next 6 to 12 months, with a target price of $170,000.

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Bitcoin Breaks Below Production Cost Support, Miners May Face Wave of Exits

JPMorgan’s report also analyzes why Bitcoin has recently weakened, attributing it to broad risk asset declines such as tech stocks, as well as significant pullbacks in traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver, which has added pressure on the crypto market over the past week.

The recent correction in Bitcoin has also caused its price to fall below estimated production costs. Analysts estimate that Bitcoin’s current production cost is around $87,000, a level historically seen as a price floor.

If prices remain below this level long-term, unprofitable miners may be forced to exit the market, leading to further declines in production costs and weakening price support.

Image source: CoinMarketCap Bitcoin has fallen over 20% in the past week

The Big Short Prototype Believes Bitcoin and Metal Futures Face Death Spiral Risk

Meanwhile, Michael Burry, the well-known investor and the real-life inspiration for the movie “The Big Short,” offers a contrasting view.

He believes there is a highly correlated risk relationship between precious metal futures and the Bitcoin market. If Bitcoin cannot stop its decline and further drops to $50,000, it could trigger the worst-case scenario.

In this scenario, crypto miners would go bankrupt due to unprofitability and be forced to liquidate their Bitcoin holdings. This would not only damage the crypto market but could also cause the tokenized metals futures market to collapse due to liquidity exhaustion.

He points out that institutions, in their efforts to deleverage or raise funds to cover crypto losses, might sell profitable precious metal positions, creating a vicious cross-market cycle.

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The Big Short Prototype: Bitcoin Triggers Gold and Silver Plunge! If a Certain Scenario Occurs, Metal Futures Could Collapse