CZ Davos Prediction: 2026 Bitcoin Super Cycle Breaks the Four-Year Curse

Binance founder CZ Davos predicts that in 2026 Bitcoin will enter a super cycle, potentially breaking the four-year pattern. He admits to past trading losses and now holds only BTC and BNB, adopting a buy-and-hold strategy. The strong support for cryptocurrencies in the US and the follow-up by other countries may change the market structure due to current institutional and policy environments.

CZ admits trading losses and shifts to buy-and-hold strategy

Binance founder CZ told CNBC in Davos: “I don’t do trading, I just hold Bitcoin and BNB. Years ago, I tried trading, but I suffered losses. Later, I realized I am a developer, not a trader.” Such honest self-awareness is rare among crypto leaders. Most KOLs and project founders tend to showcase their successes, but CZ choosing to openly admit trading losses actually enhances his credibility.

This “I am not suited for trading” realization offers important lessons for ordinary investors. Many believe trading is a shortcut to wealth, but in reality, most traders tend to lose money over the long term. Even industry insiders like CZ, who are deeply familiar with crypto markets, cannot sustain profits from trading. This illustrates that short-term market fluctuations are indeed unpredictable, and attempting to profit through frequent trading is far more difficult than most imagine.

“Bitcoin’s short-term price movements are completely unpredictable, but its long-term performance is easy to forecast.” CZ summarizes his core investment philosophy. Short-term prices are influenced by countless random factors—news events, large holders’ actions, technical indicators, market sentiment, etc.—making short-term prediction nearly impossible. But in the long run, Bitcoin’s value is determined by fundamentals: fixed supply, increasing adoption, institutional inflows, regulatory improvements, etc. These long-term trends are relatively easier to assess.

Over the years, I have seen many different trading strategies, but few outperform the simple “buy and hold,” which is exactly the strategy I use. The power of this approach is validated by CZ’s own wealth growth. As the founder of Binance, he holds large amounts of BNB and BTC, which have generated hundreds of billions of dollars in wealth over recent years. Had he chosen to trade frequently instead of holding long-term, he likely wouldn’t have accumulated such enormous wealth.

CZ predicts 2026 super cycle will break the four-year pattern

From a one-year perspective, I am not certain about 2026, but I have a strong feeling that Bitcoin will enter a super cycle in 2026. Historically, Bitcoin has followed roughly four-year cycles. Data shows that approximately every four years, Bitcoin hits a new high and then retraces. But I believe that this year, with strong US support for crypto and other countries following suit, this pattern may change, even breaking the traditional four-year cycle.

Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is closely linked to its halving mechanism. About every four years, Bitcoin’s block reward halves, sharply reducing new supply. Historically, after each halving, Bitcoin enters a bull market within 12-18 months, reaching new highs, then enters a bear market for about two years, before starting a new rally around the next halving. The halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020 followed this pattern. The halving in April 2024 is expected to trigger a new high around late 2025 to early 2026, and current market trends align with this expectation.

However, CZ believes this time may be different. The concept of a “super cycle” refers to Bitcoin no longer following the four-year bull-bear pattern but entering a prolonged bull market or high-level consolidation. This prediction is based on two key changes: institutionalization and policy support. On the institutional front, the launch of US spot Bitcoin ETFs allows traditional financial institutions and pension funds to allocate Bitcoin compliantly. These long-term funds differ from retail investors—they do not trade based on short-term volatility but treat Bitcoin as a long-term asset. This shift in capital structure could smooth out the extreme fluctuations of bull and bear cycles.

On the policy side, the Trump administration explicitly supported the crypto industry, establishing a national Bitcoin reserve, appointing crypto-friendly regulators, and promoting legislation favorable to crypto. Such a policy environment has never existed before. Previously, Bitcoin’s bull markets were mainly driven by retail sentiment and technological progress, but now government backing is involved. CZ also mentions “other countries are following,” implying a possible global trend of governments accumulating Bitcoin. If multiple governments include Bitcoin in their strategic reserves, the demand structure could fundamentally change.

Buy-and-hold strategy outperforms all trading techniques

Over the years, I have seen many different trading strategies, but few outperform the simple “buy and hold,” which is exactly the approach I adopt. Non-financial advice. This disclaimer is legally required but also reflects CZ’s cautious attitude. He shares personal strategies and views, not investment advice. Everyone’s risk tolerance, financial situation, and investment goals differ; what works for CZ may not suit everyone.

The power of buy-and-hold is clearly supported by data. If an investor bought Bitcoin in 2015 and held until now, regardless of the purchase price, they would have multiplied their wealth many times over. Conversely, traders trying to time the market often buy at peaks during bull markets and sell at bottoms during bear markets, performing far worse than simple holding. This phenomenon is common across asset classes but especially pronounced in the highly volatile Bitcoin market.

CZ’s strategy of holding only BTC and BNB is also noteworthy. As the founder of one of the world’s largest crypto exchanges, he has been exposed to thousands of crypto assets but ultimately chose to hold only two. This minimalist approach reflects the investment wisdom of “less is more.” Bitcoin, as the cornerstone asset of crypto, has an unshakable position. BNB, as the core token of the Binance ecosystem, has its value deeply tied to CZ’s own business. These two assets cover the market leader and his own enterprise, which is sufficient.

Another advantage of this strategy is reduced psychological burden. Holding dozens of different crypto assets requires constant tracking of each project’s progress and reacting to various news, which can be psychologically stressful. Holding only two assets simplifies this, allowing focus on long-term trends rather than daily fluctuations. This simplification is especially important for someone like CZ, who manages complex businesses.