Polymarket re-enters the US market through PrizePicks, with mainstream adoption boosting the prediction market sector

On November 11th, the prediction market platform Polymarket announced a strategic partnership with fantasy sports giant PrizePicks to re-enter the U.S. market through its regulatory framework and user base. Under the agreement, PrizePicks will integrate Polymarket’s event contracts into its platform, offering users prediction trading on sports, entertainment, and cultural events.

This collaboration coincides with Polymarket’s planned official return to the U.S. market later this month, following the company’s acquisition of QCEX, which provided exchange and clearinghouse licenses. Polymarket will also provide clearing services for DraftKings’ prediction products, highlighting its ambition to become the underlying infrastructure for prediction markets.

Details of Polymarket and PrizePicks Partnership and Regulatory Breakthroughs

The partnership between Polymarket and PrizePicks employs a technical integration model: Polymarket supplies prediction market smart contracts and liquidity infrastructure, while PrizePicks handles the front-end user interface and compliance management. This division allows Polymarket to bypass direct regulation by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over prediction markets, instead functioning as a technology provider collaborating with licensed operators. PrizePicks holds operational licenses in 45 states, covering approximately 120 million potential users, providing Polymarket with immediate market access.

A key premise of this partnership is regulatory breakthrough. In 2022, Polymarket settled with the CFTC for $1.4 million over unregistered operation of event contracts and subsequently began blocking U.S. users. Early 2025, the company gained legal operational status through the acquisition of QCEX, a CFTC-regulated small exchange and clearinghouse. The acquisition, completed over nine months, involved technical system integration and compliance upgrades. Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan stated, “As we prepare to re-enter the U.S., this partnership demonstrates how prediction markets can enhance fan engagement while setting new standards for interactive, regulated sports participation.”

Explosive Growth of Prediction Markets

Polymarket is on an impressive growth trajectory. By 2025, the platform’s prediction trading volume has reached tens of billions of dollars, a 400% increase over all of 2024. This growth is partly driven by election cycles—contracts related to U.S. election outcomes attracted over $300 million in bets. More fundamentally, the evolution of prediction market products—from early political events to sports outcomes, entertainment awards, tech launches, and weather derivatives—meets users’ needs for hedging and speculation on various uncertainties.

Institutional capital influx confirms market potential. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), parent of the New York Stock Exchange, made a strategic investment of up to $2 billion in Polymarket, marking the first major bet by a traditional exchange operator in the prediction market space. Additionally, Trump Media announced plans to launch the “Truth Predict” platform within its Truth Social network, supported by a CFTC-registered derivatives exchange operated by Crypto.com. These developments indicate prediction markets are shifting from niche crypto applications to mainstream financial infrastructure.

Key Data on Polymarket Ecosystem Expansion

Partnership Network

• PrizePicks user base: 45 states nationwide, covering 120 million
• DraftKings integration: designated clearing partner
• Trump Media: Truth Predict platform (upcoming)

Market Scale

• 2025 trading volume: tens of billions of dollars
• Year-over-year growth: 400%
• Institutional investment: ICE strategic investment of $2 billion

Competitive Landscape and Business Model Innovation

The prediction market sector is undergoing rapid consolidation and differentiation. Besides Polymarket, major players include: Augur—fully decentralized prediction protocol with complex user experience; PredictIt—a scholarly platform with strict CFTC restrictions; and new prediction features integrated into trading platforms like Robinhood and Webull. Polymarket’s differentiation strategy is to become the “Bloomberg Terminal for prediction markets,” providing underlying services to retail giants like PrizePicks and DraftKings for wholesale expansion.

In terms of business models, Polymarket employs a dual fee structure: a 1.5% trading fee for retail users and revenue sharing with institutional partners (around 20-30%). This design allows the company to generate stable cash flow from retail trading while rapidly scaling through partnerships without directly facing regulatory hurdles. In contrast, Augur relies solely on trading fees, and PredictIt is limited by a cap of 5,000 traders. Polymarket’s integration with PrizePicks enables access to millions of users.

Investment Opportunities and Asset Performance

The boom in prediction markets creates multi-layered investment opportunities. Direct investment in private companies like Polymarket is challenging, but investors can access related sectors through public markets: betting companies with integrated prediction features such as DraftKings (DKNG) and Penn Entertainment (PENN); infrastructure providers like ICE; and prediction-related tokens such as Augur (REP) and Polygon (MATIC)—the latter providing scalability solutions for Polymarket.

Regarding crypto assets, focus on three main directions: prediction protocol tokens (e.g., REP and GNOS), which, despite smaller market caps, could benefit directly from industry growth; scalability solutions (e.g., MATIC and ARB) handling high-frequency prediction market trades; and decentralized oracles (e.g., LINK) providing critical event data. Historical data shows that prediction market tokens tend to outperform Bitcoin by an average of 35% during election cycles, albeit with 80% higher volatility, suitable for risk-tolerant investors.

Regulatory Outlook and Risks

The regulatory environment for prediction markets in the U.S. remains uncertain. The CFTC classifies event contracts as “binary options,” requiring platforms to operate as designated contract markets (DCMs) or swap execution facilities (SEFs). State regulations are more complex—some states ban real-money prediction trading outright, others regulate it as gambling. Polymarket’s indirect entry via PrizePicks may face scrutiny from state gaming commissions.

Additional risks include smart contract vulnerabilities—causing losses estimated at around $40 million in 2024—and market manipulation, especially in low-liquidity events. Ethical concerns also exist, as predictions on disasters or tragedies may provoke public backlash. Investors should monitor the CFTC’s upcoming prediction market guidelines, expected in December, which could be a pivotal industry development.

Conclusion

The partnership between Polymarket and PrizePicks marks a key turning point, transitioning prediction markets from crypto subculture toward mainstream entertainment. As millions of users of fantasy sports begin engaging with event contracts, the scale and influence of prediction markets could grow exponentially. This fusion not only changes how people consume sports and entertainment but also has the potential to reshape societal perceptions of risk pricing and collective intelligence, laying the groundwork for the next generation of financial innovation.