Derivation data: BTC's brief pump failed to reverse cautious sentiment.

On September 9, Bitcoin (BTC) is temporarily reported at $111,365, having briefly broken through the $112,000 mark at the beginning of the week. However, data from the derivatives market indicates that this price pump has not significantly boosted investor confidence, and traders remain cautious, harboring doubts about whether BTC can hit $120,000.

Options Market: Demand for Put Protection Heats Up

(Source: Laevitas)

Delta skew: The Delta skew for BTC 30-day options is 9%, with put option pricing higher than call option pricing.

Interpretation: Reflects a rise in hedging sentiment, but may be partially influenced by last week's trading structure.

Bear/Bull Ratio: On September 8th, the demand for put options surged, reversing the trend of the previous two days, indicating that the market still has concerns about falling below $108,000.

Macroeconomic and liquidity pressure

(Source: CME Fed Watch)

Macroeconomic Background: BTC failed to follow the S&P 500 and gold to reach new highs.

Interest Rate Expectations: CME Fed Watch shows that traders believe there is a 73% chance that interest rates will drop to 3.5% or lower by March 2026 (up from 41% a month ago).

ETF fund outflow: Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of 383 million USD from Thursday to Friday, causing market unease.

Competitive Pressure: Enterprises increase their Ethereum reserves, diverting some funding attention.

Futures Market: Financing Rates Rise but Remain Neutral

(Source: Laevitas)

Annualized financing rate for perpetual futures: currently at 11%, which is a neutral level, significantly up from 4% on September 7.

Interpretation: Although there has been improvement, the futures market still lacks aggressive bets on a breakout above $112,000.

External factors: Nasdaq submitted a listing application for tokenized capital securities and ETFs to the SEC, increasing competition among altcoins.

Sentiment: Optimists lack momentum

Event Impact: Strategy (MSTR) was excluded from the S&P 500 adjustment list, dampening some optimism.

Market positioning: Currently, the likelihood of BTC breaking through 120,000 USD in the short term is low.

Potential turning point: If the outflow of funds from the spot Bitcoin ETF slows down, market sentiment may quickly recover, laying the foundation for a new bullish trend.

Conclusion

Despite Bitcoin successfully reaching 112,000 USD, derivatives data shows that the market remains cautious about a further short-term surge. The hedging demand in the options market and the outflow of ETF funds have become key factors suppressing sentiment. If the macro environment and capital situation improve, BTC may have the potential to restart its momentum, but before that, the tug-of-war between bulls and bears will continue.