Bitcoin Faces Seasonal Weakness but Holds Bullish Trend

History shows Bitcoin struggles in August and September but usually comes alive in October and November with big rallies.

Even with September’s volatility, Bitcoin is still holding its upward trend, keeping the bigger bullish picture intact.

Traders often see autumn as a turning point since October and November usually flip weakness into strong portfolio growth.

Bitcoin’s market enters a critical seasonal phase as traders brace for familiar autumn patterns

Data from 2013 to 2025 shows August and September often struggle, while October and November ignite rallies. Current trading near $111,115 highlights the tension between short-term weakness and long-term bullish momentum.

Historically, August delivers the weakest returns, averaging only +1.12% with losses in most years. September performs worse, averaging -3.32%, making it a notorious month for corrections

However, October and November have consistently reversed this narrative. October shows average gains of +21.89%, while November has delivered a +46.02% average return. These numbers reinforce why seasonal cycles matter for Bitcoin traders today.

Seasonal Trends Shape Expectations

Besides historical averages, recent years underline this pattern. In 2024, August produced a -8.6% decline, while October rebounded with +10.76%. November followed with a strong +37.29%. Hence, the data confirms that autumn months often outperform summer, with volatility peaking between September and October.

Moreover, median values echo the averages. August and September show negative medians, while October and November deliver consistent strength. Traders often lean on these seasonal insights to shape portfolio strategies during critical months.

Current Market Structure

Doctor Profit’s analysis shows Bitcoin climbing from $84,000 in April to highs near $124,000 in August. The move marked a 32% gain from cycle lows. However, September trading reveals volatility, with swings between $108,000 and $116,000. The “golden line” breakdown confirmed bearish pressure, yet Bitcoin remains above its longer-term ascending trendline.

Furthermore, a bullish framework is supported by trading volume that is concentrated around breakout levels. Higher highs are still being seen in the market, indicating consolidation as opposed to collapse. As a result, despite brief declines, Bitcoin's current structure continues to reflect bull market behavior.

Source: Doctor Profit

Hence, traders face a familiar scenario. Seasonal weakness in August and September may test patience, but historical data signals strength ahead. October and November could once again transform portfolios if patterns hold.

Bitcoin’s history shows autumn often flips weakness into strength. Seasonal cycles and current structure suggest patience may reward long-term bulls.

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