Bitcoin will reach 175,000 dollars, Ethereum will hit 17,000 dollars before the Dot-Com scenario occurs.

The first phase is a strong "melt-up" – where prices are driven by abundant liquidity and strong growth momentum. This will be a period when risk assets collectively break out, even reaching new all-time highs.

But shortly after, Zeberg predicted a collapse similar to the Dot-Com bubble, as the USD suddenly surged and financial conditions became harsher. According to him, this reversal would hit hard those markets that are overly reliant on cheap money and speculative sentiment.

"We are witnessing the biggest bubble ever," Zeberg emphasized, arguing that the frenzy is not only limited to cryptocurrencies but is also spreading to stocks and real estate. To illustrate the current excitement, he used a vivid metaphor: "The music is still playing, and you can still sip your drink at the bar," implying that the market currently resembles the Titanic – where people are still having fun without realizing the massive iceberg waiting ahead.

Henrik Zeberg – Chief Economist of SwissBlock## Bitcoin and Ethereum: Gaining Momentum Before the Crash?

The global financial market is entering a highly dramatic phase. According to macro expert Bo Erik Zeberg, the current business cycle has progressed quite far, but the timing of a recession is still clearly absent. Signals that typically precede a recession – such as a strong inversion of bond yields, widening credit spreads, or a surge in unemployment claims – remain faint so far. This leads many investors to believe that there is still room for one final breakout.

An important factor supporting this scenario is that global liquidity is gradually improving, while the Federal Reserve (Fed) has become less hawkish in tone. The combination of abundant cash flow and a less tightening policy creates the groundwork for a short-term boom. Zeberg compares the current situation to the Japanese stock market in 1989: prices initially rise modestly, but then soar vertically before the bubble bursts.

With the US stock market, Zeberg predicts that the S&P 500 index, currently around 6,400 points, could climb to the range of 7,500 – 8,200 points before reaching its peak. In the world of cryptocurrency, the scenario becomes even more dramatic. He believes that Bitcoin will not stop at typical resistance levels but could break through to at least 140,000 USD, then reach a peak of 165,000 – 175,000 USD. Ethereum is also predicted to enter a sprint, with the potential to approach 17,000 USD if the ETH/BTC ratio reaches 0.12 – usually a sign for the final stage of "altcoin season."

What makes this assessment noteworthy is its speed. Zeberg warns that when the cryptocurrency bubble enters its final stage, the pace of the increase could happen so quickly that many investors may not be able to react in time. "Things can happen very, very fast," he emphasized, implying that extreme euphoria is also a warning of an inevitable crash.

USD: The "Destructive Ball" of the bubble

One of the biggest focal points in Zeberg's analysis is the US dollar. According to him, the USD strength index (DXY) is likely to create a bottom before strongly bouncing back to the 117–120 point range. This will be a "destructive sphere" delivering a heavy blow to risky assets that are currently dependent on cheap money.

Zeberg explains that in times of crisis, all debts ultimately must be paid in USD. This is why global demand for the greenback often spikes whenever the financial system enters a period of stress. He describes the image of the USD as "the cleanest shirt in a pile of dirty laundry" – not perfect, but still the least bad option compared to other currencies.

According to Zeberg's scenario, when global capital flows into the USD, the inevitable consequence is a decline in investors' risk appetite, tighter credit conditions, and a rapid deleveraging process. This impact will be particularly severe in markets outside the United States – where businesses and governments are burdened with large USD-denominated debts, but rely on increasingly scarce local currency cash flows.

Fed, interest rates and the recession spiral

According to Zeberg, the Fed's upcoming interest rate cuts could provide a short-term boost to the market. However, he warns that this initial excitement will quickly subside, as "more savvy investors" will soon realize that this is not a rescue signal, but rather a sign that the economy is actually weakening.

Current forecasts indicate that the Fed is likely to cut 25 basis points as early as this month. However, Zeberg does not rule out the possibility that the central bank could take a stronger action – a "policy shock" – if the situation demands.

After this brief surge, he believes the market will face a deflationary period lasting from 6 to 9 months. Following that, panic over policy may erupt, paving the way for a stagflation phase – where the traditional tools of the Fed become powerless to control both growth and inflation.

Zeberg also did not hesitate to criticize past monetary policy approaches. He sarcastically remarked that the goal set by policymakers to "manage CPI at 2%" is a form of arrogance, while bluntly calling the decision to award the Nobel Prize to Ben Bernanke – for "reinventing the printing of money" – the "stupidest thing I have ever seen."

Gold, silver and the prospect of resetting currency

Zeberg believes that during a liquidity crisis, traditional safe-haven assets like gold will also be subject to sell-offs. He compares this situation to the financial crisis of 2008, when investors were forced to liquidate gold for cash.

According to Zeberg's forecast, gold prices may drop by 33-35% from peak to trough, while silver could even lose up to 60% of its value. However, he emphasized that this decline is only short-term, as the precious metals will have a strong rebound shortly after when easing measures are implemented.

In the long term, Zeberg presents a bold scenario: gold prices could reach $35,000 per ounce in the 2030s. The momentum for this super cycle comes from the prolonged context of negative real interest rates, the increasingly bloated balance sheets of central banks, along with a global "monetary reset."

According to him, the new financial system will be anchored by gold and operate on a digital platform based on distributed ledger technology. However, Zeberg emphasized that this is "not Bitcoin," but rather a different digital mechanism designed to be linked to the stable value of precious metals.

Strategy and the risk of "public Ponzi"

One of the most controversial statements made by Zeberg in the interview targets MicroStrategy – a company that was once famous for its "all-in Bitcoin" strategy and has now changed its name to Strategy. This is the business that holds the largest amount of Bitcoin in the world, and for this reason, it has become the focus of discussions related to systemic risks.

Zeberg bluntly commented:

"I think we are witnessing the largest public Ponzi scheme related to MicroStrategy. People have to rush to buy shares so the company can take on more debt and continue to buy Bitcoin."

According to him, this model operates like a vortex: when stock prices rise, companies gain more ability to borrow; borrowing more helps them buy more Bitcoin; and the amount of Bitcoin held becomes a reason for investors to continue pushing stock prices up. This is a self-reinforcing structure but also very fragile.

Zeberg warns that if the DXY index rises to 120 and Nasdaq plummets by 85%, the cryptocurrency market will certainly crash severely. In this scenario, Bitcoin will suffer a heavy shock, and at that point, MicroStrategy – which tightly ties its enterprise value to digital assets – could "collapse like a house of cards."

99% of crypto projects will disappear?

Zeberg states that 99% of cryptocurrency projects will ultimately fail, with only a few like Amazon surviving the Dot-Com bubble due to their real foundation and long-term value. He warns that the majority of the current market is dominated by rampant speculation in the era of cheap money, rather than focusing on providing real utility.

Zeberg emphasizes that there is no single trigger that can cause the bubble to burst. Instead, the collapse will come from a combination of several toxic factors: high interest rates, decreasing real income, increasing bad debt, along with significant pressure on banks and businesses.

He also noted that the concentration of profits in the Big Tech group has distorted the market, causing even small-cap but quality tech companies to struggle to avoid being caught up in a deep correction, regardless.

Nevertheless, Zeberg believes that the market still has one "final performance" with a vertical increase, driven by FOMO sentiment and the belief that "the Fed is supporting us." However, as the USD returns to the race and funds tighten, the cryptocurrency bubble will burst, leaving consequences similar to the Dot-Com tragedy – where only a few projects are able to survive and recover.

Annie