On-chain data shows that currently, 833,000 ETH are stuck in a 14-day staking queue, with 824,000 waiting to exit, leading to a continuous tightening of the market supply. This supply-demand imbalance is providing strong upward pressure on Ethereum's price, with multiple analysts predicting that ETH may break through the 4,500 USD resistance level and challenge its all-time high. This article will analyze the breakthrough potential and risk factors of Ethereum from multiple dimensions, including staking dynamics, institutional holdings, technical patterns, and AI narratives.
Staking Queue Congestion: Dual Signals of Validator Confidence and Supply Shortage
Since Ethereum completed The Merge and transitioned to a Proof of Stake (PoS) mechanism, the demand for staking has continued to surge. The current congestion in the 14-day staking queue indicates:
Validators have a strong willingness to participate, enhancing network security;
The circulating supply has been passively reduced, with whales (holding over 10,000 ETH) accumulating a net inflow of 2.2 million ETH (worth 1 billion USD) from July to now;
Exchange ETH reserves have fallen to an all-time low, with institutions like BlackRock, Fidelity, and publicly traded companies Bitmine and Sharplink Gaming continuing to increase their holdings.
(Source: Glassnode)
Historical data shows that supply shortages caused by validators often trigger an increase in ETH prices, which may drive the price to break through the key resistance level of 4500 dollars.
Technical Analysis: Wyckoff Accumulation Pattern and $9000 Target Prediction
Fundstrat's Chief Technical Strategist Mark Newton proposed that the fair value of Ethereum could reach $9,000 before January 2026 based on the ETH/BTC ratio model. This prediction is supported by the following technical formations:
Wyckoff Accumulation Pattern Reappears: This pattern previously drove the price of Ethereum from $90 to $4,866 during the last bull market (a 54x increase);
The 4-hour chart shows that the key demand range is between 4195-4277 USD, with the current price testing the 4345 USD midpoint. The RSI indicator at 41 indicates weak momentum but is not oversold.
If it holds above 4400 USD, the probability of breaking through 4500 USD and challenging the 4680 USD resistance level greatly increases.
(Source: TradingView)
AI and Tokenization Narrative: The Long-Term Value Engine of Ethereum
Tom Lee, chairman of Bitmine, emphasized during a conversation with OpenAI founder Sam Altman that the AI era requires a "human identity proof" mechanism, and Ethereum, as a network for issuing decentralized digital identities, will become the core infrastructure for solving the AI trust issue. This narrative aligns with the following trends:
Asset tokenization wave: Boston Consulting Group predicts that the scale of tokenized assets will reach $16.4 trillion by 2030.
Ethereum co-founder Joe Lubin suggested that ETH's market capitalization could surpass Bitcoin, with a potential increase of up to 100 times;
Institutional Consensus: The integration of tokenization and AI will drive the ETH/BTC exchange rate to create a new historical high.
Divergence between Derivatives Market and Spot Demand: Breakthrough Requires Whales and Impulsive Buying
Despite robust spot demand, current price fluctuations are more dominated by the derivatives market. Altcoin Vector analysts point out that for ETH to break through the psychological barrier of 5000, two major conditions must be met:
Whales restart strong accumulation (addresses holding over 100,000 ETH continue to increase their holdings);
The derivatives market has generated impulsive buying (such as the futures funding rate turning positive and the options call skew becoming inclined).
If the imbalance of supply and demand resonates with institutional FOMO sentiment, Ethereum may replicate the trend after the Shanghai upgrade in April 2023 (1800→2100 USD, a two-week rise of 17%).
Risk Warning
Short-term risks to be aware of include:
If the price breaks below the $4195 demand zone, a weakening technical structure may trigger a deep correction;
Changes in the macro environment (such as Federal Reserve interest rate policy and fluctuations in the US stock market) may suppress risk appetite for cryptocurrencies;
If the congestion in the staking queue eases, a large amount of ETH unlocking may temporarily increase selling pressure.
Conclusion
Ethereum is facing a triple resonance of favorable factors including supply shortages, institutional accumulation, and technical patterns, significantly increasing the probability of a breakthrough at the resistance level of 4500 USD. In the long term, the narratives of AI verification and asset tokenization provide a trillion-level market value imagination space. Investors should closely monitor changes in the stake queue, movements of whale addresses, and the breakthrough situation in the 4195-4680 USD range, while positioning themselves accordingly and ensuring effective risk management.
This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
Ethereum ( ETH ) price prediction: Supply shortage intensifies! 833,000 ETH stuck in staking queue, price about to break $4500?
On-chain data shows that currently, 833,000 ETH are stuck in a 14-day staking queue, with 824,000 waiting to exit, leading to a continuous tightening of the market supply. This supply-demand imbalance is providing strong upward pressure on Ethereum's price, with multiple analysts predicting that ETH may break through the 4,500 USD resistance level and challenge its all-time high. This article will analyze the breakthrough potential and risk factors of Ethereum from multiple dimensions, including staking dynamics, institutional holdings, technical patterns, and AI narratives.
Staking Queue Congestion: Dual Signals of Validator Confidence and Supply Shortage
Since Ethereum completed The Merge and transitioned to a Proof of Stake (PoS) mechanism, the demand for staking has continued to surge. The current congestion in the 14-day staking queue indicates:
(Source: Glassnode)
Historical data shows that supply shortages caused by validators often trigger an increase in ETH prices, which may drive the price to break through the key resistance level of 4500 dollars.
Technical Analysis: Wyckoff Accumulation Pattern and $9000 Target Prediction
Fundstrat's Chief Technical Strategist Mark Newton proposed that the fair value of Ethereum could reach $9,000 before January 2026 based on the ETH/BTC ratio model. This prediction is supported by the following technical formations:
(Source: TradingView)
AI and Tokenization Narrative: The Long-Term Value Engine of Ethereum
Tom Lee, chairman of Bitmine, emphasized during a conversation with OpenAI founder Sam Altman that the AI era requires a "human identity proof" mechanism, and Ethereum, as a network for issuing decentralized digital identities, will become the core infrastructure for solving the AI trust issue. This narrative aligns with the following trends:
Divergence between Derivatives Market and Spot Demand: Breakthrough Requires Whales and Impulsive Buying
Despite robust spot demand, current price fluctuations are more dominated by the derivatives market. Altcoin Vector analysts point out that for ETH to break through the psychological barrier of 5000, two major conditions must be met:
If the imbalance of supply and demand resonates with institutional FOMO sentiment, Ethereum may replicate the trend after the Shanghai upgrade in April 2023 (1800→2100 USD, a two-week rise of 17%).
Risk Warning
Short-term risks to be aware of include:
Conclusion
Ethereum is facing a triple resonance of favorable factors including supply shortages, institutional accumulation, and technical patterns, significantly increasing the probability of a breakthrough at the resistance level of 4500 USD. In the long term, the narratives of AI verification and asset tokenization provide a trillion-level market value imagination space. Investors should closely monitor changes in the stake queue, movements of whale addresses, and the breakthrough situation in the 4195-4680 USD range, while positioning themselves accordingly and ensuring effective risk management.