Toncoin (TON) is at a crossroads: Will it break through 4.5 USD or fall back to 2.5 USD?

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Toncoin (TON) is entering a crucial phase as technical patterns indicate that a major price movement may be approaching. According to analyst Ali Martinez, this coin is accumulating within a symmetrical triangle structure – a classic signal that often indicates a strong price breakout. With the daily volatility range narrowing and the convergence point approaching, TON could soon witness a decisive breakout, opening up the potential for volatility of up to 50% in the coming weeks.

Toncoin Accumulation in the Symmetrical Triangle Model

The symmetrical triangle forms when the price fluctuates within an increasingly narrow range, bounded by two converging trend lines. While the upper line acts as resistance and the lower line serves as support, a breakout from either of these boundaries often signals a strong trend in the corresponding direction.

Unlike the ascending triangle ( which tends to break upwards ) or the descending triangle ( which tends to break downwards ), the symmetrical triangle does not suggest a specific direction beforehand. The probabilities of breaking up or down are usually equivalent.

Martinez pointed out that Toncoin has moved quite far inside this price channel over the past few months and is now only a short distance away from the triangle's peak. This means that the likelihood of a breakout occurring soon is very high.

"Breaking this model could lead to a 50% volatility for TON," Martinez emphasized.

Currently, TON seems to be approaching the lower trend line, raising the question of whether the support level will hold or if there will be a deep decline.

Market Psychology and Technical Indicators

In the short-term time frames, Toncoin (TON) is moving within a narrow range around 3.1 – 3.2 USD, reflecting the indecision and lack of conviction in the market. The RSI index at 44 indicates a fragile balance, as neither the buyers nor the sellers have been able to gain the upper hand. At the same time, the MACD line shows a weakening trend, implying that trading pressure is easing.

This stagnation only highlights the importance of the upcoming breakout level. If TON can decisively break above the 3.4 USD area with solid trading volume, the price could extend its upward momentum towards 4.5 USD, potentially even approaching the 5 USD mark in the context of positive market sentiment. Conversely, losing support at 3 USD would pave the way for a deeper decline, bringing TON back to the 2.5 – 2.6 USD range – where strong buying power was previously witnessed.

TON Price Chart 1 Day | Source: TradingViewIn the short term, it is highly likely that TON will continue to fluctuate within the range of 3 – 3.3 USD until a clear breakout occurs. This is a typical characteristic of the "compression" phase in the symmetrical triangle pattern, where accumulation pressure gradually builds up in anticipation of a breakout.

Toncoin is on the brink of an important moment: price fluctuations are becoming increasingly tight, and a breakout point may appear in just a few weeks. With potential volatility of up to 50%, the next developments of TON could become one of the most notable price events of 2025, attracting special attention from both long-term investors and short-term traders.

Annie

TON-1.6%
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