The altcoin craze collapsed in a week! Google search volume big dump, funds retreating, will the next wave of market wait until September?

At the beginning of August, the term "alts" surged to an all-time high in search volume on Google Trends, leading the market to believe that the "altcoin season" had officially begun. However, just a week later, the search heat and market funds cooled down simultaneously, with the total market capitalization of alts (TOTAL3) dropping from 1.1 trillion dollars back to 1 trillion dollars. Why was this frenzy so short-lived? The reasons behind it reveal the structural changes currently occurring in the crypto market.

Google Trends: From Peak to Plummet

(Source: Google Trends)

US data: Early August saw a surge in search volume for "alts", which quickly declined a week later.

Global data: Search index plummeted from 100 to 16

(Source: Google Trends)

Similar phenomenon: The keyword "alt season" has also shown the same "pump and dump" style curve with multiple popular alts names.

Crypto commentator Mario Nawfal quipped, "Google's search volume for alt season is faster than the price fluctuations of memecoins."

Funding conditions are synchronously cooling down

According to TOTAL3 (the total market capitalization of encryption excluding BTC and ETH):

· Increased from 1 trillion dollars to 1.1 trillion dollars

· Subsequently fell back to 1 trillion dollars, which closely matches the decline in search interest.

This means that retail sentiment and capital inflows are cooling down synchronously in the short term, and the "peak season" for alts may have just ended.

Analyst Perspective: Decreased Enthusiasm ≠ Complete Bearishness

Cyclop (encryption analyst):

· Peak search volume indicates greater public interest than in 2021

· Mainly due to the explosive increase in the number of alts, "altcoin" has become a popular term.

· A decrease in heat does not mean that the top has been reached; rather, it may be the beginning of a long-term warming.

Limitations of trend measurement:

· More and more investors are using AI tools to obtain information.

· The decline in search demand for broad concepts such as "alts" does not equate to a weakening of investment willingness.

August alts market differentiation: Only three types of assets lead the way

(Source: Artemis)

According to Artemis data, the only altcoin category that performed well in August is:

1. Ethereum (ETH): Driven by the increase in holdings by listed companies.

2. Exchange tokens (BNB, OKB): OKB has increased due to large-scale token burns.

3. Oracle Token (LINK): Stimulated by the Chainlink reserve program

Most alts have performed poorly in the past month and have failed to continue the momentum.

Structural Reasons: The Era Driven by Marketing is Over

Polygon CEO Sandeep pointed out:

1. The altcoin booms of 2017 and 2021 were largely driven by marketing and speculation.

2. The current market places more emphasis on actual utility and cash flow.

3. Institutional investors are more cautious and will only allocate tokens that possess long-term value.

4. In the future altcoin cycle, the number of tokens that can surge may be fewer than ever before.

Market Outlook: Will September Bring a New Wave of Trends?

Despite the cooling of short-term enthusiasm, Pantera Capital predicts that the next round of alts行情 could arrive as early as September, when more capital and new narratives may enter the market.

Conclusion

The recent "one week to collapse" altcoin craze reflects three major realities of the current crypto market:

1. Retail investor sentiment remains fragile, with enthusiasm coming quickly and fading even faster.

2. Funds are more likely to flow towards projects with practicality and fundamentals.

3. The real "alts season" may have to wait until institutional funds and new narratives are launched simultaneously.

In the short term, investors should be wary of a rapid reversal due to overheated sentiment, but there is no need to be overly pessimistic, as structural opportunities are still brewing.