FOMC Statement: 1. Voting Ratio: The interest rate decision is likely to pass with a vote ratio of 9-2, with Board members Bowman and Waller expected to vote against. 2. Wording Comparison: There is unlikely to be substantial changes, possibly simplifying the expression of economic outlook uncertainty, acknowledging the slowdown in economic growth in the first half of the year. 3. Balance Sheet Reduction: It is highly probable that it will remain unchanged (monthly reductions of $5 billion in U.S. Treasuries and $35 billion in MBS). Powell's Press Conference: 1. Interest Rate Outlook: How to view the "expectation of two rate cuts" implied by the June dot plot? Will there be clues regarding the outlook for rate cuts in September? 2. Economic Data: Expected to emphasize the importance of data, continuing the communication style of being data-dependent and making decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis. 3. Inflation and Tariffs: Likely to remain cautious, reiterating the commitment to price stability; if emphasizing the upward risk of tariffs on inflation, it may be more hawkish than expected. 4. Term and Independence: In the face of frequent pressure from Trump, it is highly probable that there will be no substantial response, with an expectation to reaffirm independence and professionalism during the term.
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Jin10 Summary: Key Points of the Fed's July Interest Rate Decision
FOMC Statement: 1. Voting Ratio: The interest rate decision is likely to pass with a vote ratio of 9-2, with Board members Bowman and Waller expected to vote against. 2. Wording Comparison: There is unlikely to be substantial changes, possibly simplifying the expression of economic outlook uncertainty, acknowledging the slowdown in economic growth in the first half of the year. 3. Balance Sheet Reduction: It is highly probable that it will remain unchanged (monthly reductions of $5 billion in U.S. Treasuries and $35 billion in MBS). Powell's Press Conference: 1. Interest Rate Outlook: How to view the "expectation of two rate cuts" implied by the June dot plot? Will there be clues regarding the outlook for rate cuts in September? 2. Economic Data: Expected to emphasize the importance of data, continuing the communication style of being data-dependent and making decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis. 3. Inflation and Tariffs: Likely to remain cautious, reiterating the commitment to price stability; if emphasizing the upward risk of tariffs on inflation, it may be more hawkish than expected. 4. Term and Independence: In the face of frequent pressure from Trump, it is highly probable that there will be no substantial response, with an expectation to reaffirm independence and professionalism during the term.