【Block Rhythm】Recently, federal officials wrote an analysis of the latest employment report, pointing out that December data gave the Federal Reserve sufficient reason to remain on hold this month. Specifically, non-farm employment added only 50,000 jobs, which is a rather lackluster performance. More notably, the three-month average hiring in the private sector has dropped to 29,000, marking the second-lowest of the year.
This set of figures reflects not just a temporary fluctuation, but the emergence of a new trend in the 2025 labor market—“slow hiring, slow layoffs.” Companies are contracting, but the magnitude is not large, with the overall market in a cautious and wait-and-see state.
However, the unemployment rate did not continue to rise, temporarily alleviating market concerns about rapid deterioration in the labor market. It was precisely the concerns about employment prospects in the preceding months that drove the Federal Reserve to cut rates three times consecutively. Now the market has basically locked in a consensus: the Federal Reserve will likely pause rate cuts at its January 27-28 meeting and maintain its current stance. That said, the weak hiring data also means that the discussion around whether the labor market is truly healthy remains far from over.
FRBは据え置き？1月雇用データが労働市場の真実を明らかに
【Block Rhythm】Recently, federal officials wrote an analysis of the latest employment report, pointing out that December data gave the Federal Reserve sufficient reason to remain on hold this month. Specifically, non-farm employment added only 50,000 jobs, which is a rather lackluster performance. More notably, the three-month average hiring in the private sector has dropped to 29,000, marking the second-lowest of the year.
This set of figures reflects not just a temporary fluctuation, but the emergence of a new trend in the 2025 labor market—“slow hiring, slow layoffs.” Companies are contracting, but the magnitude is not large, with the overall market in a cautious and wait-and-see state.
However, the unemployment rate did not continue to rise, temporarily alleviating market concerns about rapid deterioration in the labor market. It was precisely the concerns about employment prospects in the preceding months that drove the Federal Reserve to cut rates three times consecutively. Now the market has basically locked in a consensus: the Federal Reserve will likely pause rate cuts at its January 27-28 meeting and maintain its current stance. That said, the weak hiring data also means that the discussion around whether the labor market is truly healthy remains far from over.