2025年に実際に退出すべきタイミングはいつ？データに基づく分析

Cycle tops follow predictable patterns. Bitcoin typically peaks months after halving events, and altcoins ride the momentum before the entire market reverses. The challenge isn’t spotting the peak—it’s having the discipline to leave when greed is still pumping.

The Warning Signs Are Already There

Historical data shows three on-chain metrics consistently signal major reversals weeks in advance:

MVRV Ratio tracks realized vs market value. When it hits extremes, profit-taking accelerates.

NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) measures whether the market is in euphoria or capitulation. Near cycle tops, it peaks as retail FOMO takes over.

SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) shows whether holders are selling at a loss or locking in gains. A sharp spike often precedes the reversal.

These aren’t crystal balls—they’re probability maps based on 15 years of market history.

The Exit Strategy That Actually Works

Most traders fail because they hold everything until panic selling forces them out. By then, liquidity has vanished and losses are locked in.

Instead:

• Rotate gradually into strength. Don’t dump everything at once. Move positions into stables and yield-generating assets as the rally extends.
• Separate long-term from short-term. Cold wallets hold your core conviction plays. Trading wallets are for speculation experiments only. Mixing them kills discipline.
• Keep dry powder ready. The real wealth is made after the crash, not during it. If you’re fully deployed at cycle tops, you can’t buy the real dip.

The Timeline

Altseason typically peaks in mid-to-late 2025, months after the halving. By then, narratives will be moving fast—memecoins, AI tokens, Layer 2s, all racing upward. That’s also when scams multiply. Fake airdrops, phishing sites, and rug pulls become unavoidable.

When the cycle actually tops, it feels like the opposite of a crash. Everyone will believe the rally is just getting started. That disagreement—between what the data shows and what the crowd believes—is usually the best sell signal.

The Hard Part

Taking profit will feel deeply uncomfortable when you’re supposed to do it. Every dollar you move to stables will look like money left on the table as prices keep climbing. That psychological friction is exactly why most traders hold through the entire drawdown.

Profit only exists when it’s in your pocket. Numbers on screen don’t pay rent or fund opportunity. The goal is survival first, growth second. You can’t compound wealth if you lose 90% waiting for the next cycle.

The traders who dominate multi-cycle returns aren’t the ones who catch the absolute top. They’re the ones who leave the table while they’re ahead.