Société Générale and Standard Chartered predict that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points, believing that the Fed's policy needs to be "significantly adjusted."

On September 15, analysts at Société Générale believe that the Fed's moderately restrictive stance has been maintained for too long, and there is a situation of "over-tightening." Therefore, although there are still concerns about sticky inflation, the risk balance in the Fed's dual mandate (employment and inflation) has tilted towards the employment side. Based on this, it is necessary to implement a more significant policy adjustment (i.e., a 50 basis point rate cut). In fact, they are not the only ones holding this view; Standard Chartered is another institution that exclusively predicts the Fed will cut rates by 50 basis points this week. Nonetheless, it is important to be cautious, as this view contradicts current market pricing and the general consensus—currently, the market widely expects a 25 basis point rate cut. As previously mentioned, traders currently believe the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed is only about 4%. (Jin10)