After the unexpected performance of the non-farm data, expectations for interest rate cuts have risen: the probability of a 25 basis point cut has reached 98%, and there is even a 14% chance of a one-time cut of 50 basis points. This expectation hangs like the sword of Damocles, carrying the hope for liquidity easing while also concealing risks; every step could trigger market fluctuations. The issues behind the interest rate cut warrant caution. The effect of Favourable Information being exhausted is the primary concern; the market is highly anticipatory, and in the months leading up to the rate cut, investors have already positioned themselves in advance, incorporating potential upward space into their decisions, which is reflected in the current market conditions. It’s like having too many spoilers before a movie release, resulting in a lack of anticipation once it premieres; the market may correct itself when the Favourable Information is realized. Meanwhile, large institutions cashing out at high levels exert pressure on assets like Bitcoin, as large holders unload significant amounts, causing the market to sway like a ship suddenly unloading a large cargo, leading to market volatility. The stage for the interest rate cut has not yet begun, but the market battle has already reached a fever pitch. The early digestion of Favourable Information and the exit of institutions suggest that the market will struggle to remain calm after the rate cut. Investors need to consider how to accurately position themselves amid the uncertainties, avoid risks, and seize opportunities.

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After Bitcoin's price peaked around 116600, it faced resistance and retreated, dropping to a low of 115071 before stabilizing. Currently, it is slightly consolidating within the range of 115500-116000, and it is still operating steadily within an upward oscillation channel, with the overall trend framework remaining unchanged. Despite multiple attempts to break through the previous high points, effective breakthroughs have not occurred due to the lack of sustained momentum, temporarily restraining the upward pace. However, the defensive strength of the key support area below is extremely robust, successfully curbing the depth of the market's pullback. Notably, when the price tests the lower support, it has consecutively recorded candlestick patterns with long lower shadows. This technical signal intuitively reflects that whenever the market retraces to the key support level, buying interest actively steps in, significantly demonstrating the bulls' control over the lower region, laying a solid foundation for the continuation of the upward oscillation trend.

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Ethereum experienced a slight technical pullback over the weekend, but it remains above the support level of 4600. The short-term trend may continue to face pressure, and attention should be focused on the effectiveness of the support around 4600. On the 1-hour chart, the price rebound is temporarily constrained by the EMA30 moving average (around 4680), with current highs and lows continuously rising, indicating that bulls still hold the dominant position at lower levels. Recently, the candlestick pattern has alternated between small bearish and bullish candles, suggesting that there may be a certain demand for adjustment in the short term. However, from a broader trend perspective, the overall pullback remains relatively small, while the upward trend continues to strengthen amid fluctuations. If the key support level remains unbroken during subsequent multiple pullback formations, the market is likely to initiate another rally.

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The altcoins are following the mainstream and are being organized accordingly, the altcoin index remains neutral, the market sentiment is still mildly recovering, pay attention to the Bitcoin market share situation, fiat currency buying signals, determine the altcoin activation signals, and Ethereum-related tokens are more influenced by Ethereum!